Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-2) visit the University of Massachusetts Minutemen (1-4) for an somewhat important game of football

Is there such a thing as a “dangerous 1-4 football team?” There is a certain measure of danger radiating from any 4-loss team this early in the season. After all, two more mistakes and your post-season aspirations dissolve. The danger’s dialed up for UMass, who won their Week Zero opener against New Mexico State (the program’s first season opening win over an FBS team in over 40 years), were blown out by their next two opponents (Auburn and Miami OHIO) and then lost their last two games by five points – combined.

You Probably Forgot but the Red Wolves Barely Beat UMass Last Year

Yeah it was gross. It was Marcel Murray’s opus, compiling 123 yards and a touchdown, but it was also the Red Wolves eeking out 275 yards of offense and executing just 11 first downs while going a fantastic zero for eight on third down. How did Arkansas State win this game 35-33? Nobody knows.

The Good News is That This is a Different Red Wolves Team (as of two weeks ago)

Two weeks ago, the Red Wolves were 0-2 and had been outscored 110-3. The next two weeks, the Red Wolves went 2-0, putting up 75 points and exorcising demons by deploying a strong fourth quarter to defeat Southern Miss.

The difference? I dunno! But it might have something to do with true freshman quarterback Jaylen Raynor, who first spurred the Red Wolves over Stony Brook by throwing the program’s first touchdown pass of the season, then accounting for five touchdowns in the win against the Golden Eagles.

Last week, it was Raynor’s ability to run (97 yards, two rushing TDs) and throw (233 yarsds, 3 passing TDs) that provided a new layer of unpredictability to the offense, enabling guys like running back Ja’Quez Cross (58 yards on ten carries) and wide receiver Courtney Jackson (94 yards, three TDs) to put up solid stats. The Red Wolves offense has new life with Raynor under center. The game with the Minutemen will reveal if the momentum is sustainable.

The Minutemen Maybe Have Their Own Jaylen Raynor

During last week’s overtime loss to New Mexico, starting quarterback Carlos Davis got himself all dinged (abdominal injury), freshman signal caller Ahmad Haston tossed a 65-yard touchdown to Anthony Simpson to bring the score to 28-26 with 45 seconds left in the game. Haston then completed the 2-point conversion pass to tied the game.

UMass fell in overtime, but Minuteman head coach Don Brown was kind of impressed with his freshman.  “He was able to create some magic. He just kept competing. I am not sure he knew what he was doing. But the reality was he was competing.”

He! Was! Competing! No word on whether or not Carlos Davis (who replaced the injured Taisun Phommachanh) will return against the Red Wolves. Davis has been effective, completing 61% of his passes for 886 yards and 6 touchdown (three picks).

The Minutemen Are Not Without Weapons

UMass may be 1-4 because they give up a lot of points (36.6 per game) while fielding a 110th ranked defense. (Arkansas State’s defense is ranked 123rd, but who pays attention to stats?). The Minutemen are more an offensive team, averaging 391 yards a game and about 26 points.

Spurring that offense is junior RB Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams, who’s put up a pair of 100-yard games, averages and has found the end zone four times. UMass’ leading receiver, Anthony Simpson, has a pair of TD catches on 393 yards. If the freshman Haston winds up starting under center, he’ll need A-games from Simpson and Lunch-Adams.

The Offenses Will Battle, But a Defense Will Win the War

Neither the Minutemen or the Red Wolves have what is commonly called a “lockdown” defense. Arkansas State surrenders a ton of yards against the pass (274 pg). Massachusetts gives up a great number of yards on the ground (199 pg). The team whose defense makes the most stops, forces the most turnovers, and allows the fewest explosive plays will win.

Image: It’s mine