The Sun Belt Gives The People What It Wants: Entropy and Violence!

When a national pundit sees the Sun Belt Tournament bracket for the first time, the reaction is almost always the same: “Holy shit!” Shaped like a spearhead or an Imperial Star Destroyer, the bracket is both terrifying and sublime – unfairly weighted for the conference’s best yet leaving all the drama and storylines for the lesser seeds. Voilà! The Sun Belt Tournament bracket is the closest sports comes to art.

“A hustler has to get out of town as quick as he can, but a good con-man – he doesn’t have to leave until he wants to.” – Gabriel Kaine, Diggstown

You can bet that those outside the Sun Belt orbit will be rooting for The Diggstown Seeds – the four teams tasked with winning seven straight games to earn the Sun Belt title and a place in the NCAA Tournament. Choose your fighter: Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina, ULM or Louisiana.

I’d have put coin on Southern Miss most likely to emerge from the foursome unscathed had the team not recently bounced Andre Curbelo from the roster. Curbelo led the Golden Eagles in assists and was good for 10-points per game. However, Southern Miss is still with the services of arguably the conference’s most productive player, Denijay Harris, and the dangerous Neftali Alvarez. You can’t count these guys out.

Earlier in the season, I thought Coastal Carolina might be a competitive team largely due to the fact they added two seven-footers centers to the roster (I always overvalue seven-footers). While Noah Amenhauser has been productive, the more hyped of the two, Missouri transfer Mabor Majak, hasn’t found his niche in Conway. Still, you can’t coach height! And the Chants have defeated Southern Miss earlier in the season.

The matchup between ULM and Louisiana is intriguing for the in-state rivalry alone. Of the two, the Cajuns appear most likely to prevail despite their abysmal rebounding and shaky outside shooting. Despite the team’s shortcomings, Christian Wright and Mostapha El Moutaouakkil have proven themselves a potentially effective shooting combo. However, their inability to defend the three may be to the Warhawk’s advantage. ULM, behind Tyreese Watson and Jalen Bolden, can get hot with the rock, and Coltie Young is one of the most accurate three-point shooters in the game. Could the Warhawks provide retiring head coach Keith Richard with a parting gift?

Of these four, who has the greatest opportunity to win seven straight? None of these teams have the depth to survive such an undertaking, especially ULM. I’m picking Southern Miss simply because Denijay Harris is by far the best player among the bottom four teams.

The Chewy Center

It is not uncommon for the Sun Belt Champion to emerge from the mid-seeds (which is probably why Keith Gill decided to load the dice). Weighted bracket or not, The Chewy Center is bulging with upset candidates. Before losing its last two, Georgia State had won six of its last eight had seemed ready to roll behind Cesare Edwards. Should the Panthers be concerned about those losses to Coastal and Georgia Southern? Both defeats were tight. A mature team pushes those losses aside.

Georgia Southern and Old Dominion are not without their moments this season, and both Robert Davis and Sean Durugordon of the Monarchs have been very good. But neither of these teams seem to have the same fire as Texas State, who defeated both South Alabama and James Madison to finish out the season. Tylon Pope is a legit threat, working in tandem with the under-mentioned Tyrel Morgan. Don’t be surprised to see the Bobcats dish out an upset or two.

Perhaps the biggest dangers in the Chewy Center are Appalachian State and Marshall, the latter the third best offensively in the conference, the former the best defensively. The CJ Huntley/Myles Tate combination for the Mountaineers is possibly the best Big Man/Scorer combo in the Sun Belt. Meanwhile, the Thundering Herd’s Obinna Anochili-Killen is tough to defend but also a beast of a shot blocker, smacking back 3 per game. Both teams play tough in the paint, which tends to be a contributing factor in post season play.

Of these teams, I like now much sizzle the Bobcats bring entering the tournament, knocking off two of the SBC’s best at season’s end. However, don’t look past coach Dustin Kerns and Appalachian State.

The Shiniest Objects

We’re left know with The Shiniest Objects in the Sun Belt: James Madison, South Alabama, Troy and Arkansas State, who all finished the season with a share of the Sun Belt regular season title. However, of these four, Arkansas State may have the most to prove. The Red Wolves, despite owning the conference’s only Tier 1 victory and the SBC’s most Tier 2 wins, have lost to the Dukes, Jaguars and Trojans this season. Joseph Pinion and Izaiyah Nelson have been incredible, with Nelson emerging as one of the better big men in college basketball. But they’re just two producer’s of many. The Red Wolves certainly have the deepest talent pool in the conference, but can the team find a way to solve their challenges against tough interior defenses?

Troy, under coach Scott Cross, has played its usual grinding brand of basketball, clogging up the paint with capable bigs like Thomas Dowd and Theo Seng. But it may be the relentless combo of Myles Rigsby and Tayton Conerway that make the Trojans tick. The two work in concert like components in a Swiss clock which is invaluable under tournament conditions.

South Alabama features another SBC Player of the Year candidate in Barry Dunning Jr., a powerful scorer who seems to play bigger than his listed 6’6″ frame. Coach Ritchie Riley’s tight zone defense is equal to that of Appalachian State’s, but the Jags also have Myles Corey (big year for guys named Myles), a tenacious defender who creates copious turnovers.

Of the Shiniest Objects, the Dukes may be the best balanced – 5th in the conference offensively, 5th in the conference defensively. Perhaps too quietly, Mark Freeman has become one of the top players in the SBC, leading James Madison in points, field goal percentage and assists. Holdovers from last year’s championship squad – Elijah Hutchins-Everett and Xavier Brown – are both averaging double digit points, and the Dukes are receiving its most rebounding production from a guard, 6’6″ Southern Indiana transfer AJ Smith.

Of these four, Troy and Arkansas get the benefit/liability of a tuneup game before facing South Alabama and JMU respectively. The Red Wolves have a good chance to face two teams that have already defeated them (Marshall and South Alabama) before arriving to the finals, while Troy is likely to face an Appalachian State team it has already bested.

Will waiting six days to play blunt JMU and South Alabama’s skills by the time they suit up on March 9? It’s something to consider. Of these four teams, South Alabama might bet the one best positioned for victory, but honestly, all four make a great argument.

PHOTO: James Madison Athletics