Nobody cares about the National Invitational Tournament until a program you care for has a case for an invitation. After all, the goal is the NCAA Tournament. Anything less is a letdown. Programs from The Power 4 (5? 6?) often make an elitist statement to their fans by rejecting NIT invites. Why should a fans of a program like, say, the Arkansas State Red Wolves, have interest?
For starters, we have history with the tournament. A-State once made the field four-out-of-five years, starting in 1987 when Arkansas State faced Arkansas in the first round, losing 64-67 before a rowdy crowd in Barnhill Arena. A-State would receive another invite the next season, where it proceeded to defeat ULM in the first round, then Stanford (!) in the second before falling to Colorado State. In 1989, Arkansas State fell in the first round in a one bucket game to Nebraska, but in 1991, A-State once again made it to the third round, defeating Rice and Memphis before falling by six to Colorado.
Since then, we’ve received more invites to the NCAA (1) then to the NIT (0). When Arkansas State received routine NIT invitations, the times were simpler. Teams got in on merit. Today, the NIT (and the NCAA) seem more occupied by brands and broadcast eyeballs. For example, the NIT now makes special exemptions for the SEC and ACC, providing 16 “exemptions” that include the top two teams not selected to the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship from both the ACC and SEC. Why? SEC and ACC turns on the tube.
This year’s NIT qualifications are a mismatched sock drawer of arbitrary metrics and eyeball observations. Here is the mess arranged in a bulleted style:
- The top team not selected to the NCAA championship from the top 12 conferences (based on the Ken Pomeroy Rating) will receive an exempt bid to the NIT (the top teams from the ACC and SEC not making the NCAA receive
unfairspecial considerations). - The top teams from each conference will be determined based on the average of the teams’ ESPN Basketball Power Index, Kevin Pauga Index, NCAA Evaluation Tool, Ken Pomeroy Rating, Strength of Record, Torvik ranking and Wins Above Bubble ranking.
- Regular-season conference champions that are not otherwise selected to the NCAA championship can earn an automatic bid to the NIT as long as that regular-season champion has an average of 125 or better across the BPI, KPI, NET, KenPom, SOR, Torvik and WAB rankings.
- The rest of the 32-team field will be selected as at-large teams by the NIT Committee (which includes Jeff Jones, who I understand once coached SBC’s Old Dominion).
At first glance, the Red Wolves would appear to have some standing. Regular season conference champion? Check. A 125 or better average across the ranking platforms? Check. Because Howlraiser is cheap, we do not have a paid subscription to KenPom, but I suspect the Sun Belt didn’t quite crack the Top 12 conferences, so no exempt bid.
There are other trouble spots. While Arkansas State is technically a regular season champion, it is a member of a four-team tie, with the tie-breakers placing the Red Wolves at fourth. That may rule Arkansas State out for an autobid, leaving Bryan Hodgson’s squad at the mercy of the committee for at at-large.
Arkansas State has its pros and cons for an at large. Among the teams that tied for the regular season championship, the Red Wolves are the only sub-100 team for NET and KenPom. In addition, A-State is the only Sun Belt program with a Tier 1 NET victory (Memphis) and holds the most Tier Two victories (2). Notable wins include Memphis (A), Akron, UAB (A), Troy (A), and South Alabama – plus a well regarded loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
There are some bad losses. Neutral site defeats to Rice and Hofstra don’t help, and neither do home loses to Troy and South Alabama. The committee may also take a dim view of the road loss to Kent State. Furthermore, while the Red Wolves may boast the best NET in the Sun Belt, 94 isn’t exactly a gold standard.
There are other factors working in favor for A-State. Some have projected an NCAA berth for as many as 14 of the 16 SEC teams. Who’s to say the remaining two jilted SEC programs would accept an NIT invite? The AAC won’t have nearly as many in the NCAA, but they’re possibly even more snobby than the SEC. It’s not beyond the pale that both the SEC and ACC sit the NIT out – and possibly other so called power conferences, too.
Arkansas State has also bore the good fortune of playing on national television several times this season, including the the SBC Tournament Finals, when the committee may note the Red Wolves’ ample crowd support. (Apparently, I was the only Red Wolves fan not in Pensacola this year.) Furthermore, the Red Wolves play an entertaining style of freewheeling basketball, and it helps that Bryan Hodgson’s ties with Nate Oates give NIT announcers every opportunity to bring up Alabama.
Should the Red Wolves make the NIT? A 24-10 conference champion should merit fair consideration. If not, well, there’s always the CIT.
PHOTO CREDIT: Sun Belt Media
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