On the gridiron, Arkansas State head football coach Butch Jones is an arms-crossed guy, pensively pacing the sideline, clad in wrinkle-free athletic-wear, seemingly buried by the thoughts stored betwixt the folds of his football brain. He seems encased inside one of those big plastic battle bubbles, making him impervious to the outside world.

In person, Butch Jones is a different man. A bit guarded, perhaps, girded by the coach-speak he’s famous for. His suit is impeccable; his tie carefully knotted and not a wrinkle to be seen. His could use his pocket square to dice carrots. He’s physically fit, but not Crossfit – he might have trained with Rocky in the Siberian tundra. When he smiles, it’s genuine. He remembers names. When we’re done talking, he makes it a point to invite me and my podcast partner, Dusty Thibodeaux, to visit campus and take in a practice.

“You can do your podcast from the stadium,” he says warmly, and I suspect he’d be a perfect host. Butch Jones didn’t travel to New Orleans for Sun Belt Media Days to invite obnoxious blog writers and no-name podcasters to his practices, however. He’s spinning a narrative, and it’s different from last year’s, which was heavy on lowering expectations. This season, he wasn’t exactly promising a championship, but he wasn’t backing away from the Year 3 expectations either.

“What do you expect out of season 3?” I ask him, because I’m not afraid to ask the hard questions.

“I’m very excited,” he says, “I think we’ve had a very productive off season. We’re still building our identity, but the culture, the mindset, the work capacity, we’re a completely different football team – a completely different looking football team.”

The football look is important to Butch Jones. He has a definite idea what an FBS college football player should look like, and when he first entered the Arkansas State locker room in 2021, he saw few individuals who mirrored the image. The Butch Jones Era smells like Pine Sol – a total house cleaning focused on building a roster through recruiting and spackling gaps through the transfer portal.

“You look back at Year 1, we were just trying to field a football team. We had to go into the Portal. We had to use our allotment of scholarships. But we made a really heavy commitment to building our younger talent base – we’re still a developmental program.”

While some programs within the Sun Belt have created an identity through the transfer portal (Texas State comes to mind), Butch Jones has stubbornly stuck to old fashioned high school recruiting, building relationships in Florida, Alabama and in Arkansas to build a roster of four-year talent. The team is still young – there are just 14 seniors on the roster. (By comparison, South Alabama boasts 23.)

As a result, Butch Jones acknowledges that the roster is not without its weak points. “We still have some concerns; some depth issues. But the key for us is can we play winning football in all nine position groups. That’s going to be the key.”

Butch Jones is big on “playing winning football” at “all nine position groups.” He’s also big on players “owning the program,” which he says more players do than at any point of his tenure. But whether or not the Red Wolves make an impact on the Sun Belt West will rely on dozens of variables.

Who’s Gonna Be the QB?

Last season, the offense belonged to Florida State transfer Justin Blackman, a lanky, big-armed pocket passer who found himself scrambling for his life thanks to breakdowns from the inexperienced offensive line. Blackman finished his final season in 2022 with 2,471 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. He’s currently attempting to break the Miami Dolphins’ roster.

This season, we’re left with a trio of legitimate contenders for QB1: incoming redshirt freshman Jaxon Dailey, true freshman Jaylon Raynor, and Tennessee/Colorado transfer redshirt senior JT Shrout. “Whether it’s Jaxson, whether it’s JT, whether it’s Jaylon, I’m going to need them all to improve an grow,” said Butch Jones, ever the diplomat. He added that each member of the QB troika was competitive, respectful and were pushing each other to retain the position of QB1. “Whoever emerges,” said Jones, “he will not only lead the offense, he will have to lead the team.”

Fair enough! However, only one of thee three candidates has thrown a meaningful pass for the Red Wolves. The left-handed Jaxon Dailey finished the 2022 season with 10 attempts, five completions and a pick. Dailey was also one of Butch Jones’ most highly touted recruits, a 247Sports 3-star with offers from Iowa State, Michigan, WKU, Princeton and Rice. The kid from Iowa has bona fides, as well as some bitch’n facial hair.

Potential aside, the frontrunner to start against Oklahoma in Week One is incoming Colorado transfer JT Shrout, who has literally been a figure in college football for years. Recruited to Tennessee in 2019, Shrout finally received a consistent starting role in 2022 for the Colorado Buffalos, where he led a heroically under-talented offense with 1,220 passing yards, seven touchdowns and eight picks. While the stats don’t particularly scream “Championship Football,” the 6’3″ Shrout bears the big arm, stoic pocket presence of a seasoned game manager that Butch Jones seems to like. Don’t expect Shrout to break off a big run – he recorded NEGATIVE 15 rushing yards in 2022.

The most intriguing of the three quarterbacks is true freshman Jaylon Raynor. His high school senior season stat line is difficult to comprehend without leaving a puddling of drool on the carpet: 186 of 285 passes completed for 2,944 yards with 40 touchdowns to just three interceptions plus 1,259 yards on 145 carries and 17 scores. These numbers are infinite. The 6’0″ Raynor can beat you with his legs and his arm. During the A-State Spring Game, for which hed led the second-team offense, Raynor connected for 333 passing yards and a score.

There is a wild card in the quarterback room – a freshman who completed 4 of five passes in the Spring Game, including one for a touchdown. Will Prichard, a 6’2″ carrot-topped Floridian with offers from Arizona, Auburn, Utah, Vanderbilt, Buffalo, East Carolina, and UTSA, certainly has the profile of a Butch Jones QB. Prichard passed nearly 3,000 yards as a senior in high school with a 40/2 TD-to-interception ratio. Don’t look past the Sunshine State Kid.

The Weight Rests on the Offensive Line

When OL Robert Holmes went down in the third week of 2022 with a season-ending injury, it underscored just how fragile Arkansas State was in the offensive trenches. Once Holmes was out, Arkansas State posted a 50% or better conversion rate on third-down just once – 9 of 17 in the win over ULM. Alarmingly, the Red Wolves offense would see two games where ZERO third-down attempts were converted. The last five games saw only 8 conversions on third down.

The grim fact was that the OL Room was too young, too inexperienced, and not prepared for Sun Belt football. This sad state of affairs compelled Butch Jones and his staff to focus heavily on the offensive line in the off season.

“We really invested in the offensive line,” said Butch Jones. “We committed to the high school ranks in the last two recruiting classes, but we needed to go find individuals in the Portal who could come in and compete right away to elevate the position.”

This two-pronged strategy for the offensive line looks to finally be paying dividends in Year 3 of the Butch Jones Era. The offensive line is still young – only Ole Miss transfers Hamilton Hall (6’5, 311-lbs) and Jalen Cunningham (6’5″ 350-lbs) are seniors, and both are projected to start. The rest of the room has beefed up, with 12 of the 16 OLs weighing in at 300+ pounds. Though young, the hardships of last season delivered valuable playtime experience for emerging contributors like Aleric Watson (6’4″ 302-lbs), Elijah Zollicoffer (6’5″ 330-lbs), Mekhi Butler (6’3″ 330-lbs) and Noah Smith (6’7″ 311-lbs).

The guy to watch is the guy in the middle – the transfer junior center from Lamar, Jacob Bayer (6’3″ 315-lbs). Bayer has drawn great praise from Jones, and he definitely has the size to open lanes previously left unavailable to Arkansas State running backs. If the Red Wolves are to make noise in the Sun Belt West this season, players like Bayer and his confederates in the trenches will need to finally rise to their size.

Can the Defense Take Another Step Forward?

Last season, the Red Wolves ranked 90th in Total Defense, a significant improvement over the previous season’s effort, which was low-lighted by the surrender of an obscene number of big plays. The addition of S Eddie Smith was instrumental to limiting the number of huge-yardage plays, as well as improved performance at linebacker. Can Rob Harley’s defense seize upon this modest momentum?

The defense has its strengths. We may be seeing one of the stronger linebacker units for the Red Wolves in quite awhile, with Malique Straker and Charles Willekes lending experience to the position, and youngsters Cam Jeffery and Javante Mackey appearing ready to add some licks. Veterans Cruz Temple and newcomer Gavin Potter provide backup-plus.

Also looking solid – the Red Wolves backfield. CB Samy Johnson returns for his senior year, hopefully 100% healthy. Joining him at the wings is seasoned air defender Leon Jones, with Denzel Blackman and newcomer Manny Stokes providing the breathers.

But the guy receiving the most attention from Butch Jones in the backfield is 6’0″ junior safety Justin Parks, who has impressed with both his locker room and gridiron leadership. Parks totaled 34 tackles last season, and creates a fine backfield tandem with Smith.

What troubles fans (who, quite frankly, are always a bit troubled) is the defensive line. Adding more talent to the line was frequently cited as a top priority by Butch Jones in the off season, but a big splash failed to develop from the Portal (although the Red Wolves did quietly acquire freshman Thomas Puhek as a PWO). So who takes command?

Our money is on sophomore DE Keyon Crawford (6’4″ 243-lbs), who put work in the gym and seems ready for a breakout season. Is Crawford destined to join the ranks of A-State legends like William Bradley-King, Chris Stone, Ronheen Bingham, and JaVon Rolland-Jones? He has the motor. If the position can get reasonable production from Thurman Geathers (6’2″ 215-lbs) and Ethan Hassler (6’2″ 248-lbs), and if big-bodied nose tackle Micah Bland (6’1″ 318-lbs) can create some inside disruption, look for Crawford to shine. (The key is that nobody gets hurt. NOBODY!).

Open Casting Call: Playmakers Wanted

Last year, it became painfully evident that the team lacked an essential winning ingredient: offensive playmakers. Wide receiver Champ Flemings appeared to step in that role early in the season before enduring a season-sapping injury. With the quarterback routinely running for his life, and running backs absorbing lost yardage on every other run, the closest the Red Wolves had to a playmaker was sure-handed tight end Seydou Traore, who parlayed a 655 yard, 4 TD season into a portal to Colorado (where he received The Prime treatment and would up at Mississippi State).

A great many things is new about the offense this season. We already talked about the offensive line, which should be positioned to improve upon last season’s 118th Total Offense finish. While there are skill position players worth discussing, perhaps the most intriguing is the return of redshirt sophomore WR Corey Rucker (6’0″ 210-lb). Up 20 pounds since he entered Arkansas State as a freshman, Rucker cashed in on a 800-yard, nine touchdown season in 2021 for a trip to South Carolina. Now he’s back at Arkansas State, appearing stronger than ever, ready to lead a squad that isn’t particularly deep, but loaded with interesting talent.

Among those talents, senior Jeff Foreman (6’0″ 183-lb) a receiver with a world of ability, but has yet to deliver that truly magic season. Foreman’s best two seasons (2020, 2021) came with Rucker at his flank, and he seems to feed off Ruckers’ abilities. Foreman and Rucker are projected to be a formidable pair this season.

However, neither Rucker nor Foreman will reach their fullest production without a run game to provide variety. The Red Wolves haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since the great Michael Gordon compiled 1,068 yards in 2015. Last season, Johnnie Lang led the Red Wolves with a paltry 419 yards. Much of that failure can be attributed to struggles at the line of scrimmage, but the Red Wolves still need a running back who will seize the tough yards and, God willing, break off some big yardage plays.

Offensive Coordinator Keith Heckendorf may have found his bruising tandem in redshirt senior RB Brian Snead (6’0″ 211-lbs) and redshirt junior Zak Wallace (6’0″ 229-lbs), the transfer from UT-Martin and native of Benton. Snead and Wallace are two tanks who soften defenses, leaving speedier guys like redshirt sophomore Ja’Quez Cross (5’9″ 189-lb) to find the gaps and break off spirit crushing runs.

Who else can become playmakers for Arkansas State? Sophomore TE Miller McCrumbie (6’3″ 225-lb) arrived to Jonesboro the 36th best tight end recruit in the nation per 247Sports. If he’s not ready to deliver blocks and catches, look for Northwest Mississippi CC transfer Kevin Diaz (6’4″ 250-lbs) to be a massive target for whoever winds up behind center.

Other potential playmakers include sophomore RB Mike Sharpe II, redshirt junior Syracuse transfer WR Courtney Jackson, and redshirt sophomore WR Wyatt Begeal, who beefed up to 204-lbs during the off season.

Normally, I Don’t Talk About Special Teams

As a fan, it’s not easy to get jazzed about punting, field goals and kick returns. However, the Red Wolves have paid special attention to special teams since Butch Jones arrived, creating one of the best kicking units in all of college football.

There may not be a better field goal kicker in the Sun Belt than Dominic Zvada, the lanky 6’3″ sophomore one missed one field goal his freshman season – in the wind, at 54 yards. Sure, there are some who might select the more experienced Diego Guajardo of South Alabama as the conference’s best kicker, but for my coin, it’s Zvada.

The Schedule is the Opponent’s 12th Man

Some have determined that the schedule is hard on Arkansas State. Opening with Oklahoma at Norman isn’t ideal, nor is facing the two top SBC West programs (Troy and South Alabama) at their own digs. Additionally, the Red Wolves host the Sun Belt East champion Chanticleers and visit the Sun Belt East favorite Marshall to end the season. Bruising!

However, the Red Wolves get a strategic BYE between Troy and Coastal Carolina, right smack in the middle of the season. The BYE came late in the year last season, irking Butch Jones who dealt with major injuries to the roster all season. This year’s BYE provides a well place breather between taking on division champions back-to-back.

Sep 2	@ Oklahoma	Sun Belt isn’t intimidated by the Big 12.
Sep 9	Memphis	Let the game slip away last season in Memphis last year.
Sep 16	Stony Brook	Better wn that.
Sep 23	Southern Miss	Last season, lost it in Hattiesburg in the 4Q.
Sep 30	@ UMASS	Long distance win.
Oct 7	@ Troy	Second toughest away game.
BYE
Oct 21	Coastal Carolina	Tim Beck’s first trip to Jonesboro.
Oct 28	@ ULM	Warhawks haven’t defeated A-State in over a decade.
Nov 4	Lousiana	Good home game for A-State.
Nov 11	@South Alabama	Toughest away game. Red Wolves play both West frontrunners away.
Nov 18	Texas State	Budding rivalry may have postseason significance.
Nov 25	@ Marshall	Gotta go all the way to Huntington? Gah!

Honestly, there are few “certain victories” on this schedule. The Red Wolves dominance over ULM has to end at some point, of late Texas State has owned A-State’s number, and who knows what the Minutemen are concealing in Boston? Stony Brook appears to be the bodybag FCS win, with the Seawolves coming off a two win season, but every other game on this schedule will be a fight. On the flip side, receiving Memphis, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, Texas State and Southern Miss in Jonesboro is a benefit to to the team and the fans.

Will We Be Good This Year?

That’s the real question, right? During Sun Belt Media Days, somebody (I forget who) asked me how many wins I thought the Red Wolves had in them. I said six, and the look I received would have shattered even John Hamm’s confidence. Arkansas State’s performance over the last two seasons – five wins, 19 losses – hasn’t produced the results worthy of fear and respect.

And yet, we’re optimistic. Year 3 has been fruitful for Butch Jones at every stop. Central Michigan: 11-2. Cincinnati: 9-3. Tennessee: 9-4. At Sun Belt Media Days, Jones didn’t downplay his Year 3 success. He accepted it as a matter of fact, and though me made no guarantees, he seemed to bear the ease of a man who knows something that everyone else missed.

Will we be good this year? I honestly don’t know. But I think it’ll be more fun to find out.

PHOTO CREDITS: All mine