Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-2) vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-2)

6:00 PM at Centennial Bank Stadium on ESPN+

Last year’s 20-19 loss to the Golden Eagles one among the most frustrating for Red Wolves fans in recent memory. Up 19-7 entering the fourth quarter, Arkansas State seemed to have the game in hand. However, Frank Gore Jr. had other plans, leading Southern Miss to thirteen unanswered points and a miserable, terrible one-point victory.

This season, Southern Miss comes to Jonesboro, where they will find a Red Wolves team amidst in the what has become the usual offensive struggles. However, a win against FCS Stony Brook was not only a win for Arkansas State, but a jolt of electricity for a program in search of its playmakers. They may have found him in the form of speedy sophomore running back Ja’Quez Cross, who rushed for 160+ yards and two touchdowns in a 31-7 win over the Seawolves.

A Match-up of Run Games

Frank Gore Jr. gobbled 96 rushing yards against Arkansas State during their 2022 meeting. After three games season, Gore Jr. has rushed for only 76 yards. The Golden Eagles’ leading rusher is actually Rodrigues Clark, with 157 yards on 29 carries, which makes you wonder if something is amiss with the Golden Eagles’ 120th ranked run game. It is also worthy to note that the Southern Miss defense has surrendered the most rush yards of any program in the Sun Belt.

Still, it isn’t likely that Gore Jr. forgot how to gain yards over the off season. He will be the guy Arkansas State’s defense will attempt to bottle. Meanwhile, Ja’Quez Cross delivered a career game against Stony Brooks not-terribly-bad defense, totaling 164 yards on 15 carries. He wasn’t the only one chipping in. Big bodied bruiser Zak Wallace grounded out 57 yards and a score, and promising freshman Cedric Hawkins put up 52 yards on just six carries. Playing behind a clicking offensive line, the Red Wolves ground game finally appears to be shaping into a potent offensive weapon.

Everybody Wants to Know Who’s Behind Jacob Bayer

Arkansas State center Jacob Bayer has now executed snaps to three game-time quarterbacks – JT Shrout, Jaxon Dailey, and true freshman Jaylen Raynor. The Week 4 depth chart remains unchanged: all three are listed, with the senior Shrout atop the list. Shrout is said to be returning and recovered after an ankle injury suffered against Memphis.

Dailey started against Stony Brook in Week 3, and he enjoyed first quarter success by leading the team to 17 points. However, all scores came on the ground, and it became clear to everyone (most notably to the Seawolves defense) that Dailey was having a difficult time igniting the pass game (7/17 for 62 yards). Raynor entered late in the third quarter and engineered two scoring drives of his own: 4/6 passing for 78 yards and one pass TD. He added 57 rushing yards for good measure.

Who starts on Saturday? Coach Butch Jones is playing coy, electing to have Southern Miss prepare for three signal callers instead of just one. While Raynor has clearly shown to be the most effective quarterback in very limited snaps for the Red Wolves, he’s still a true freshman. Shrout, who entered college football in 2017, has the experience Jones covets. Meanwhile, Dailey may have growing pains, but nobody has more familiarity with the playbook that the redshirt freshman.

Bottomline, we won’t know until minutes before the snap.

Red Wolves and the Golden Eagles Are the Spiderman Pointing Meme

Both teams are 1-2. Both teams have a victory over an FCS opponent. Both teams have trouble generating offense. Both teams have been blown out by P5 opponents. Both teams have suffered disappointing defeats to American opponents.

What’s Missing from Southern Miss?

Last season, the Golden Eagles body-slammed all expectations by turning in an unexpected bowl season, guided by first-year head coach Will Hall. This year, some of the sorcery that delivered magic for Southern Miss appears to be exhausted. We already talked about the run game. The offense in its entirety has also been a weak-spot. Only ULM has delivered a more anemic offense.

Defensively, the Golden Eagles are having trouble against the run, fielding the 122nd ranked rush defense in the nation. The reason why Southern Miss ranks a not-too-bad 77th in total defense is it’s defense against the pass (16th nationally). Nobody is the Sun Belt is better than defending the pass than Jay Stanley, the 6’2″ senior defensive back we’ll likely see on Sundays.

What’s missing from Southern Miss? Much like Arkansas State, the Golden Eagles are having trouble generating offense, particularly from the run but also from the pass – just three passing TDs from starting QB Billy Wiles this season. But most importantly, the good fortune that followed this Southern Miss team is present in 2023. Half of the team’s regular season wins last season were won by a single score (or in the case of Arkansas State, a single point). Will Hall may simply be experiencing Year 2 realities.

What We Need to See from Arkansas State

If Coach Butch Jones has access to the same statistics I do, he will likely attempt to test Southern Miss’ struggling run defense with a liberal dose of Cross and Wallace. But the Golden Eagles will simply stack the box unless the A-State passing game finds some kind of success. While we’ve seen some reliability from Reagan Ealy and Courtney Jackson, it’s essential that Corey Rucker and Jeff Foreman finally start clicking with whoever is chucking the pig pill.

Defensively, the dinged-up frontline needs to prevent Gore Jr. from rediscovering his mojo – let him find it against the Bobcats next week. DT Micah Bland is said to be practicing after an injury against Memphis, and DT Tim Hardiman looks to be back after retiring early from the game against Stony Brook. Red Wolves will need top-drawer play from both.

The Final Analysis

Fans are feeling a bump in hope after seeing the offense actually do things, even if it was against Stony Brook. As a result, there is added pressure on some of the younger players that showed a lot of potential after a limited number of snaps. It’s not fair, but fans will cling to anything positive.

That said, expect the momentum with A-State.

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