Predictions, Analysis, Broadcast, Kick-off Times and Spreads for the Sun Belt in Week 5
[for deeper analysis, visit FunBelt Podcast]
Seriously, though, the Sun Belt is performance measuring well above the entire Group of Five right now, and we can’t even get a vote in the AP Top 25? In fact, SBC programs are so starved for deserved recognition that the Georgia State Panthers have gotten a little thirsty.
Congrats on the vote, Panthers, but damnit, the Sun Belt is entitled to more. Just look at the numbers, why don’t you?
Saturday, September 30th (all times Central)
Louisiana (3-1) @ Minnesota (2-2), 11:00 Big Ten Network, -12.5 Gophers
The Sun Belt doesn’t lose to the FCS and only loses about fifty-ish percent of the time to the Power Five. The Cajuns are still without starting quarterback Ben Wooldrige, but that didn’t stop Louisiana from putting up 45 points on woeful Buffalo last Saturday (thanks largely to the RB combo of Dre’lyn Washington and Jacob Kibodi). What should concern head coach Michael Desormeaux is the defense giving up 38 points to woeful Buffalo. It will be a challenge to stop Darius Taylor and that Gopher run game.
Prediction: Feeling oddly good about the Cajuns
South Alabama (2-2) @ James Madison (4-0), 11:00 AM ESPNU, -3 Dukes
Having already dispatched one SBC West powerhouse in Troy, the Dukes are positioned to establish Sun Belt dominance against the Jaguars, who just can’t seem to get their shit together. However, South Alabama’s Carter Bradley must be frothing at the opportunity to pick apart Jimmy Mad’s surprisingly beatable pass defense, which got boiled for 402 air yards by Utah State last week. Still, the Dukes look potent behind Jordan McCloud’s ability to make plays and that mighty rush defense.
Prediction: JMU goes 5-0, receives zero AP Top 25 votes
Arkansas State (2-2) at Massachusetts (1-4), 2:30 PM ESPN+, -1 Minutemen
The Minutemen were a Week 0 winner behind starting QB Taisun Phommachanh, but Phommachanch got injured in the Week 1 game versus Auburn, putting senior signal caller Carlos Davis behind center. Davis isn’t quite the run threat Phommachanch is, but he’s completed 61% of his passes for 886 yards and six TDs. He’ll be a test for the Red Wolves pass defense, which had moments of peril against Southern Miss. Look for this one to be offensively powered, but it will be defense that determines the victor.
Prediction: Red Wolves howl for a third straight week
Old Dominion (2-2) @ Marshall (3-0), 2:30 PM ESPN+, -14 Thundering Herd
The Monarchs barely escaped the trap game with Texas A&M Commerce on Saturday, with starting QB Billy Wiles throwing three picks before receiving the mercy pulling for back-up Jack Shields. While Ricky Rhane’s men were struggling to survive, the Thundering Herd was pounding on Virginia Tech(nically a football team), grinding the Hokies with their suffocating defense. Defensively, ODU hasn’t been bad, and the Monarchs may find some opportunities against Cam Fancher, who can be careless (three picks against just two TD passes). But getting a win in Huntington is a big ask.
Prediction: That thunder you hear is Herd thunder
Coastal Carolina (2-2) @ Georgia Southern (3-1), 6:00 PM NFL Network, -6.5 Eagles
It’s not 2021 anymore, and Coastal Carolina is a team in decline, with much of its talent graduated or playing in the NFL. Perhaps that’s too harsh an assessment for a team still lead by quarterback Grayson McCall, but the Chants simply haven’t looked great since defeating Georgia State on September 22 of last season. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern is one “Davis Brin Doesn’t Throw 5 Interceptions” away from an undefeated season, getting it done on both sides of the ball. Grease up the school bus. Eagles are about to roll.
Prediction: The Eagles destroy the spread and the Chants
Troy (2-2) @ Georgia State (4-0), 6:00 PM ESPN+, -1.5 Panthers
Vegas gives the Panthers the home courtesy nod, but it’s anyone’s guess who wins this game. Troy’s defense put a cork into Austin Reed and the Hilltoppers high-powered offense last week, and that’s impressive. Also impressive was Georgia State’s Darren Grainger playmaking all over Coastal Carolina in Conway. Something has to give, and if it gives for the Panthers, it will be because Georgia State is prone to making unforced errors.
Prediction: Panthers remain undefeated and unranked
Texas State (3-1) @ Southern Miss (1-3), 6:00 PM ESPN+, -7 Bobcats
If you thought the Bobcats would beat Baylor then fade into the ether, you have another think coming. GJ Kinne and his team overcame an early 17 point deficit to triumph over Nevada last week, displaying grit and maturity that signals lasting success. Trending in the opposite direction, the Golden Eagles, freshly defeated by Arkansas State and seeking an answer that isn’t just “Hand the ball to Gore Jr.” Second year head coach Will Hall finds himself backed into a corner in Hattiesburg β and that makes Southern Miss a little dangerous.
Prediction: The Golden Eagles make this more interesting than necessary
Appalachian State (2-2) @ ULM (2-1) , 7:00 PM ESPN+, -13.5 Mountaineers
What’s going on in Boone? Appalachian State seemed to have a win against Wyoming locked up β until they didn’t, and now Shawn Clark must be wondering how a team with Nate Noel isn’t scoring more touchdowns. While enjoying a restful week, the Warhawks have had plenty of time to analyze the flaws and weaknesses of the Mountaineers. With the quarterback position experiencing some anxiety, it will be the ULM defensive line that coach Terry Bowden will rely on to get the W. Given the uncertainty with the Mountaineers of late, he might get that win.
Prediction: Warhawks beat the spread, earn the moral victory
IMAGE: Sun Belt Media
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