On the FunBelt Podcast, I often describe Old Dominion as the “weirdest football program in the Sun Belt.” Are they good? Are they bad? Why do they win? What makes them lose? This is the dark matter that composes the Sun Belt universe.

However, just as (if not more) weird are the South Alabama Jaguars, picked by many (including me) to be the cream of the Sun Belt West – and even the best team in the entire SBC. Ten weeks of football has shown us otherwise. The Jaguars sit at a baffling 4-5 despite fielding the nation’s 26th ranked defense, the 40th ranked RB (La’Damian Webb) and the nation’s second leading wide receiver (Caullin Lacy).

Some of the record is reflected by the Jaguars’ quality of opponents. South Alabama has fallen short to the Sun Belt’s two stingiest defenses – James Madison and Troy. They defeated #15 Oklahoma State in Stillwater but fell to #23 Tulane. Those are all quality opponents. However, South Alabama was also been beaten at home by Central Michigan (4-6) and Louisiana (5-4). In addition to the Cowboys victory, they have an FCS triumph and wins over ULM and Southern Miss. Not the greatest resume.

Turnovers are an issue. The Jags committed five turnovers to Tulane, five to Louisiana, two to James Madison and one to Troy. The problem isn’t Red Zone offense, where South Alabama ranks 10th nationally (30 TDs scored), but penalties could be a contributor (526 yards lost).

The truth is, there’s no clear reason why the South Alabama Jaguars are desperately fighting for bowl eligibility rather than sitting atop the division, laughing like a villain.

Hungry Like The Red Wolf

Having reached their fifth win with three games left in the season, the Arkansas State Red Wolves find themselves ravenous for more. Suddenly, the objective is no longer to get 1% better, but to finally assert themselves as a significant gridiron threat.

How does a team that began the season by accruing just three points in its first two games find themselves harboring postseason aspirations? Coach Butch Jones has curated two of the Sun Belt’s best recruiting classes since his arrival, loading the roster with immense but inexperienced talent. The investment in raw high school recruits is finally bearing fruit, with players like Jaylen Rayner, Miller McCrumby, Ja’Quez Cross, Javon Mackey, Keyron Crawford and Makilan Thomas making key-to-critical contributions at their respective positions.

But it’s also worthy of note that the Jones’ portal work is paying dividends, too. The bulk of the play-time offensive line, which enabled A-State to pile on 232 yards of rushing on the Ragin’ Cajuns last week, are transfer athletes: Jacob Bayer, Jaylen Cunningham, Mekhi Butler and Hamilton Hall. Other transfers making a big difference is work-horse running back Zak Wallace, hard-hitting linebacker Charles Willekes, trench man Micah Bland, and backfield guru Eddie Smith. This blend of seasoned transfer athlete and talented freshmen/sophomores have finally clicked.

Will We See Carter Bradley?

The sometimes brilliant Carter Bradley injured his knee in the Jaguars loss to Louisiana, leaving freshman Gio Lopez set to make his first career. Unfortunately, that start was against Troy in the annual Battle for the Belt Rivalry. Lopez, who has a set of wheels not seen in South Alabama in several seasons, played decently enough for a young player thrown into the hottest of fire: 155 passing yards plus 39 on the ground.

Clearly, Kane Wommack would prefer to have the veteran Bradley behind center. Bradley has thrown for 2,156 yards and thirteen touchdowns this season, and while hasn’t quite had the prolific season some in Mobile had hoped, he is clearly an upgrade over the freshman – no matter how promising.

Carter is said to be a “game time decision” which is likely a bit of gamesmanship from Wommack, who’d rather the Red Wolves split their preparation between the big passer and the fast runner.

Can Lacy and Webb be Contained?

Both Webb and Lacy were held to under 100 yards against Troy, but then again, Troy’s defense tends to make mortals out of gods. The Red Wolves defense, which held the conference’s top ranked defense last week to just 68 yards, is generally more bendy than Troy’s. Spoils shall be had by South Alabama’s top bananas.

However, the quantity of those spoils will largely depend on who winds up behind center. Half of Carter’s yards and touchdown passes are to Caullin Lacy (1,046 yards, 13 TDs). Webb only rushed for 53 yards with Lopez running the offense.

Can the Red Wolves Overcome that Jag Defense?

Yam Banks and Jaden Voisen are two of the stingiest safeties you’ll come across in college football, and Rickey Fletcher is among the toughest corners in the conference. The front line is better than average at making tackles behind the line of scrimmage, and the defense is top 20 for red zone stoppage (again, how do these guys only have four wins?).

South Alabama will be a difficult test even for the Red Wolves vastly improved offensive line. Expect to see plenty of hard-hitt’n Zak Wallace softening up the defensive trench before we see some Rayner connections to Courtney Jackson, Jeff Foreman, Corey Rucker and the ever reliable Reagan Ealy.

Bottomline: There’s Much on the Line

Even at just four wins so late in the season, the Jaguars still believe they can reach the required six win threshold for bowl eligibility – and that makes South Alabama a dangerously motivated opponent for Arkansas State.

However, Arkansas State has more than just bowl eligibility on their minds. The Red Wolves program has endured several seasons of poor football and subpar records – and this has run parallel to A-State’s losses to South Alabama – four straight defeats starting in Blake Anderson’s next to last season in 2019. To defeat South Alabama would be to lift a curse, and become symbolic of the program’s ascent back to relevance.

Expect the fur to fly in this one.

Image: my own