Dennis Franchione. Everette Withers. Jake Spavital. And a dash of interim coaching from Chris Woods for good measure. Season after season, Texas State was a football program led by coaches incapable of developing the winning formula. The futility led to a playful moniker – the Boobcats, a designation assigned for the program’s propensity for losing. While the university’s basketball and baseball programs found success, one could count on Boobcats football for comic relief.

At least, this was once a universal constant for Arkansas State, who for a number of seasons sealed conference championships by defeating the clawless Bobcats. A new sorcery, however, arose in 2020, when Spavital’s squad of transfer portal athletes out-slugged Blake Anderson 45-47 in San Marcos. Since the day Brady McBride threw for 443 yards and 5 touchdowns on the Red Wolves, Arkansas State has not known a moment’s success against the program once known as The Boobcats.

Jeff Foreman and the Texas State Misery Streak.

Red Wolves senior wide receiver Jeff Foreman was in his second season in Jonesboro the day A-State fell to Texas State in 2020. (He recorded one catch for eight yards in a win over the Bobcats in 2019.) He was the Red Wolves’ leading receiver at 148 yards and a touchdown, courtesy of Layne Hatcher (who would transfer to Texas State in 2022).

In 2021, the Red Wolves lost at home 24-22 in the season finale. Foreman was held to one catch for 24 yards.

Last year, the Red Wolves were on the receiving end of its third consecutive 2-point loss to the Bobcats – a horrifying 16-13 game that Arkansas State led 10-3 going into the fourth quarter. Jeff Foreman collected four passes for 45 yards from journeyman quarterback James Blackman.

Perhaps this is the year that Foreman’s career versus Texas State returns to its early glory. With 448 yards and 4 touchdowns on the season, Foreman overcame a slow start this year to become one of the most reliable (and sometimes spectacular) receiver in the A-State arsenal. A big game on his Senior Day would be a nice bow on his Red Wolves career.

Texas State Has Been Consistently Hit & Miss

The Bobcats defeated Southern Miss, lost to Louisiana, bounced back against ULM, lost to Troy, rebounded against Georgia Southern, then lost to Coastal Carolina. The edict set by this precedent seems to imply a win over Arkansas State, but I’ve never been one for cosmic law.

As inconsistent as that seems, the worse loss the Bobcats have on its resume is Louisiana, currently 5-5. Wins over Baylor, UTSA and Georgia Southern don’t look bad on LinedIn. They handled their business over ULM and Southern Miss.

We May Have Clues to Defeating Texas State

While GJ Kinne has led Texas State to a magic season, the Bobcats have shown signs that the conference is catching up to them. Where once TJ Finley was a clear offensive MVP of the Sun Belt, he’s now a more modestly effective quarterback. Against Coastal Caroline, he threw for a mere 49 yards before ceding time to Malik Hornsby.

Defensively, the team is surrendering more than 28 points per game (tied for 90th) and ranks 97th for total defense, despite a fine season from senior corner Kaleb Ford-Dement. You can pass the ball on Texas State – the secondary surrenders 248.2 passing yards per contest.

What we can glean from this is that if you can neutralize Finely’s arm, you can out-score the Bobcats (provided you accept that running back Ismail Mahdi will get his yards). That means Red Wolves like Blayne Toll, Timothy Geather, Nate Martay and Keyron Crawford will need to find a way to crack the Bobcats’ massive offensive line. Furthermore, if the A-State offensive line can keep junior defensive end Ben Bell out of Jaylen Raynor‘s grill, the Red Wolves will have its sixth win on Saturday.

Like the Mosquitos, Confidence Grows in Jonesboro

Despite losing 21-14 in Mobile to South Alabama, the Red Wolves are feeling good about their progress. After enduring a terrible nine loss season in 2022, the team is beginning to see its many pieces cementing together, starting with the rise of true freshman quarterback Jaylen Raynor, a revitalized offensive line, and a bend-don’t-break defense led by freshman linebacker Javonte Mackey and senior corner Samy Johnson.

For all the praise heaped upon Raynor, it’s the defense that has proven key to Arkansas State’s new “dangerous foe” status. Led by linebackers Mackey, Melique Straker and Charles Willekes, the A-State defense may not be a threat statistically, but it has largely mitigated the damage created by explosive plays, and it often keeps the team in the game long enough for Raynor & Co. to figure out what to do offensively.

To defeat Texas State, the Red Wolves will need a more effective performance from bruising running back Zak Wallace, who collected 45 yards on South Alabama the first half, but was held to only 11 yards in the second. Furthermore, Saturday would be a good time for wide receiver Corey Rucker to score his first touchdown of 2023.

The Final Analysis

Once, the Bobcats were the punchline to a regularly scheduled bodybag game for the Red Wolves. Three consecutive losses later, nobody is laughing at Texas State, which has be totally retooled by first year head coach GJ Kinne. Verily, this may not be the year for Texas State, but the days that the Bobcats are a legitimate threat in the Sun Belt West is soon, very soon.

That same feeling can be applied to Arkansas State, who began the season outscored 110-3 after two games and find themselves battling for a Bowl spot with two games left on the schedule. How the downtrodden have risen!

The Bobcats have already hit the magic six number for wins, but everybody knows that when it comes to Texas State, six wins may not be enough to guarantee a bowl. Kinne would very much like to remove all doubt. That said, the Red Wolves not only have a bit more to play for, they’re doing so on friendly grounds. Head coach Butch Jones would love nothing more than to secure a sixth win before a home crowd – many of whom had doubts whether or not Jones’ crockpot approach to roster building would work in today’s quick-fix environment.

We predict the Red Wolves unleash a rabid pack in Jonesboro on Wednesday.

IMAGES BELONG TO JEREMY HARPER