Before the season opened, the Sun Belt released its preseason rankings, an exercise as productive as firing a shotgun into the air and expecting a fully prepared steak dinner to land at your feet.

Old Dominion, picked to finish third in the conference, ended up in the Sun Belt basement. Troy and Arkansas State, predicted to finish 8th and 9th, silenced their doubters by finishing third and fourth to secure the double byes. The prognosticators did a fine job picking the two best teams, with both Appalachian State and James Madison earning the top two positions (though who could have predicted that the Mountaineers would hand the Dukes two losses?).

Suffice to say, the best program traveling to Pensacola this week is Appalachian State, one of the nation’s best defense teams and bearing a perfect home record which included a victory over a ranked Auburn squad. Any criticism of the Mountaineers will either be unceremoniously blocked by Justin Abson or Tre’Von Spillers, as no program in the nation blocks more unwelcome shots.

Who Are The Likely Winners?

Because this is the Sun Belt tournament which has been historically governed by entropy and madness, Old Dominion has just as much chance of representing the Sun Belt in the NCAA Tournament as Appalachian State or James Madison. However, the Mountaineers enter the tournament winners of its last six, and 14 of its last 15, making them a hot cannonball of momentum.

However, no Sun Belt team has won more games on the road than James Madison, whose 12-2 away record sparkles against mostly dull performances from the rest of the conference. As boring as it is to say it, the top seeded Mountaineers and the second seeded Dukes are your most likely victors.

Who Can Reasonably Challenge this Assertion?

Southern Miss, behind a healthy Austin Crowley and Andre Curbelo, defeated James Madison in Hattiesburg. The Mountaineers, away from the thin air of Boone, took losses to Texas State and Troy. Does this give some hope to the Golden Eagles, Bobcats, and Trojans? Sure, why not? Intriguingly, the Bobcats have won three straight, including a win over the suddenly vulnerable Trojans. Brandon Love, the 6’9″ forward for Texas State, is the physical inside presence that the Dukes would rather avoid, and 6’6″ Davion Sykes found lots of success in their win over Appalachian State

However, one could also see Arkansas State take a swing at the kings, who had won six straight contests before losing consciousness in Boone’s hostile atmosphere. The Red Wolves are as hot as anyone in the Sun Belt now, and the double bye afforded to them by tournament rules will go a long way to healing dings sustained by Caleb Fields and Freddy Hicks Jr.

Who’s the Cinderella?

We already mentioned the Bobcats, who heated up with three straight victories to conclude the regular season. But the most dangerous low seed in the Sun Belt tournament might be Georgia Southern. After starting the season laying a goose egg out of conference, the Eagles opened conference play with a win over Southern Miss and became a legit upsetter of the apple cart. Additionally, first year head coach Charlie Henry closed out the season winners of three of four – with the loss a near upset over James Madison. Can Tyren Moore score enough points to overcome opening round opponent South Alabama (who will enjoy a semi-home court advantage thanks to Mobile’s close proximity to Pensacola).

Who Will Disappoint?

At the halfway point of the conference slate, it appeared that Louisiana was putting it all together, possibly in place to challenge the Sun Belt’s Big Two. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns finished the season losing four straight before stopping the hemorrhaging at home against Southern Miss. With Kobe Julian nailing jumpers and Joe Charles and Hosana Kitenge patrolling the paint, the Cajuns seemed to have all the ingredients to at least secure the double-bye. But as the great Socrates once said, Nope!

Also in position to disappoint: Scott Cross and the Trojans. This was supposed to be a reset year for Troy. Instead, the Trojans spend a good chunk of the season atop the Sun Belt standings. But after losing two to Arkansas State and clunking the closer against the Bobcats, one wonders if Troy (5-9 on the road) is running out of fuel and coasting on fumes to Pensacola.

Who Will Absolutely Not Win the Sun Belt Tournament

Coastal Carolina

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