The Sun Belt Picked Arkansas State to Finish Fourth in the West, and That’s Just Fine
The Sun Belt West may very well be the most fascinating race in all of college football. You have a defending champion, Troy, challenged to repeat with a new head coach and a depleted roster. You have a malcontented South Alabama team that may have seen its best days pass by without a championship. You have a shiny upstart in Texas State, brimming with new toys and a second-year head coach gone supernova. You have the division’s original gangster, Louisiana, making a power play to ascend back to the top. You have a program unaccustomed to losing and itching to prove themselves in Southern Miss. You also have ULM.
Right smack in the middle of this marvelous maelstrom is Arkansas State, picked to finish fourth in the West by Sun Belt coaches and coming off a 6-7 season and its first bowl appearance since 2019. Butch Jones, now in his fourth year as head coach, is seeing the seeds of his relentless high school recruiting bearing fruit. He has an entrenched second-year talent at quarterback. He has the size in the trenches he’s coveted since Year One, and the leadership at skill positions to make up for any inexperience.
Time to tighten the string on your gym pants, Red Wolves fans. We’re in for a wild season.
Burrowing Into The Brain of Butch Jones
On the surface, Butch Jones is a professional linguist of coach speak, dropping dry bon mots like “Champions of life,” Year Zero,” and “winning football” with almost military discipline, often using a singular phrase to set the tone for post-game pressers all season long. (This year, one gets the feeling that “We have to get another year better” will play a starring role.) The tactic may not make you a darling of the press, but it does provide a line of focus for the team and coaches.
Dig deeper, and you’ll find a more nuanced layer to Butch Jones. He can be playful, as when he seizes the microphone from The Ticket and executes an impromptu interview of an opposing Sun Belt coach. He never forgets a name. While he isn’t dynamic behind the microphone, he is always available and respectful with the press. I’ve never known him to throw an individual player beneath the bus – he’s more prone to blaming his own preparation or game plan.
What’s obvious is that his players deeply respect Butch Jones. The reaction of Justin Parks during last year’s blowout loss to Oklahoma is poignant evidence of it, as was the universal joy displayed by the team after the bowl-sealing victory over Texas State. It’s been a challenging three years for Butch Jones at Arkansas State, where he basically restarted the program from formula to eventually build a team to his standards. The locker room believes in Jones’ ready-minted mantras and, to borrow some classic coach speak, have placed their trust in the process.
The Tale of the Talent
Four years ago, an out-of-town pundit asked me to name the five best players on Arkansas State’s roster, and I was hard-pressed to complete the assignment. The team was short of talent, but worse, it was lacking identity. There wasn’t a true leadership personality on the team. There were some guys that players gravitated to, but there was nobody who could demand accountability from the entire locker room. If there was a guiding principle, it was lost to everyone.
As cliche as it sounds, the program required culture – something long lasting that could not be built by importing players already exposed to another team’s culture. Yes, Butch Jones would use the portal as an example of what he expected out of a football player. But culture was something that can only developed from the ground floor; built on a foundation of true Arkansas State Men™.
It wasn’t easy, nor was it instantaneous. In year one, Butch Jones and his staff produced one of the top recruiting classes in the SBC. Today, only five of those players remain – Makilan Thomas (OL), Justin Parks (LB/S), Cam Jeffrey (LB), Ethan Hassler (DL) and Manny Stevenson (TE). All five will see their names on the 1-deep this season.
The Red Wolves placed eight players (nine positions) on preseason All Sun Belt Teams – tops in the conference, tied with Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. Consider that in Butch Jones’ first season as Arkansas State head coach, the Red Wolves placed ZERO players on the first and second team – and that was when the SBC was only ten members strong. Jonesboro has finally returned to full-strength football.
Red Wolves Keystone Player #1: Jacob Bayer, C
The 2024 Remington Trophy Watch Lister is recovering from a torn ACL, and while he’s said to be making a great recovery, it is our assertion that Red Wolves fans should expect to see Bayer eased into the lineup.
When healthy, Bayer is one of the most talented centers in the nation. According to Pro Football Focus, he was the top-rated center in the SBC and Group of Five last season, and second in the FBS with a PFF grade of 82.9. Even his EA Sports ranking rates first on the team. Bayer is in his second (and final?) season at Arkansas State, to where he transferred from Lamar. His performance in the trench is critical to a Red Wolves SBC West championship, and NFL scouts will notice.
Can Arkansas State Defeat the Michigan Wolverines?
The easy answer is “No.” After all, historically the Red Wolves are dismal on the road against top tier football teams (see: Alabama, Auburn, Oregon, Oklahoma). Still, there are pockets of weakness in Ann Arbor for which the Red Wolves can exploit.
Firstly, success has depleted the Michigan. Not only has the NFL plucked the head Wolverine Jim Harbaugh, it has swiped 13 key players – including quarterback JJ McCarthy, defensive tackle Kris Jenkins, and cornerback Mike Sainristil.
Secondly, Michigan is distracted by scandal, with former head coach Harbaugh slapped with NCAA sanctions. Any distraction helps.
Lastly, it’s not as if a Michigan team hasn’t been surprised by a supposed bodybag game before. Just ask Appalachian State. They’ll be happy to tell you about it. At agonizing length.
The preseason Coaches Poll (which is stupid) ranks Michigan 8th, but only third in the BIG 10, with Ohio and Oregon ranked above the Wolverines. Even among national pundits, who shamelessly worship the Wolverines, there are question marks.
True, Arkansas State’s solid offensive line will still have to find a way to stop All-American defensive end Mason Graham, and sure, the “Big House” is not the most welcoming atmosphere, but technically the Red Wolves have a chance.
Can Arkansas State Beat Texas State and Louisiana on the Road?
Last season, the Red Wolves asserted their return to relevance by first thumping the Cajuns 37-17, and then unloading on the Bobcats 77-31. Those beatings weren’t impressive enough to convince Sun Belt coaches, who picked both Texas State and Louisiana to finish ahead of Arkansas State in 2024.
Of course, the Red Wolves accomplished these twin beatdowns at Centennial Bank Stadium. Now they take the show on the road, where they will have to break what might be the two best offensive lines in the Sun Belt. Defensively, both teams are stacked at linebacker, with Ben Bell leading the Bobcats and KC Ossai pacing the Cajuns. To run on either team is tough sledding.
Still, you can’t discount what the Red Wolves bring to the table. The run game that totaled seven touchdowns against the Bobcats last season is back in 2024, and while the Red Wolves defense has lost some key contributors, many of the defenders who held the Cajuns to just three first downs are back for more. It’s not an easy ask, but Arkansas State is being overlooked.
Red Wolves Keystone Player #2: Justin Hodges, CB
Like Jacob Bayer, Hodges is a second-year Red Wolf transferring from UCF and immediately making his presence known with six starts and 26 tackles. This year, even more will be demanded of Hodges, who finds himself one of the more experienced Red Wolves in the secondary. Arkansas State recently added 3-star community college transfer Kionte Curry (6’0″ 195-pounds) to give Hodges and Jordan Mahoney some quality back up, but leadership falls on Hodges’ shoulders.
Looks Like a 12-0 Schedule to Us!
| Opponent | H/A | Date | All Time | Analysis |
| Central Arkansas Bears | H | 8/31 | 12-13 | The Bears are a top FCS program again |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | H | 9/7 | 2-2 | Last time we hosted the Golden Hurricane, the game was played in an actual hurricane |
| Michigan Wolverines | A | 9/14 | 0-0 | Lost head coach, lost a lot of guys, seen as third best team in the BIG 10 but probably still okay |
| Iowas State Cyclones | A | 9/21 | 0-0 | Predicted to finish 6th in the BIG12 – never fun to see Matt Campbell again. |
| BYE | ||||
| South Alabama Jaguars | H | 10/5 | 6-6 | Best teams have gone by, but Jags still dangerous under new HC Major Applewhite |
| Texas State Bobcats | A | 10/12 | 7-4 | Very tough in the trenches. Very tough on D. Red Wolves won by 46 last year. |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | A | 10/19 | 3-10 | Still putting it together in Hattiesburg. Probably needs more pieces. |
| Troy Trojans | H | 10/26 | 10-9 | Lots of new in Troy, including first year coach Gerad Parker. |
| BYE | ||||
| Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | A | 11/9 | 21-28 | O-Line and D is good as usual, but the Red Wolves trounced the Cajuns by 20 last year. |
| Goergia State Panthers | A | 11/16 | 6-2 | First year under new HC Dell McGee. Lots of rebuilding to do! |
| ULM Warhawks | H | 11/23 | 30-14 | Red Wolves have won 14 straight; new head coach Bryant Vincent won’t break the streak |
| Old Dominion Monarchs | H | 11/30 | 0-1 | A weird way to end the season. Who’s knows which Monarchs team will show? |
For the first time since 2019, college football schedules include two BYE weeks, with Arkansas State’s coming after the OOC slate and after an important home game with Troy. Also noteworthy, the Red Wolves close the season with two home games – against ULM and ODU, two opponents expected to finish at or near the bottom of their respective divisions.
We’ve already discussed the two difficult road games with Texas State and Louisiana, but the rest of the road slate seems manageable with games at Georgia State and Southern Miss. Dealing with the Jaguars and Trojans at home is also a gift. Last note of note: the Red Wolves take on five new head coaches this season, four from the Sun Belt.
Improving on the Metrics
| Offense | Ranking | Projection | Defense | Ranking | Projection |
| Total Off. | 72nd | ⬆️ | Total Def. | 124th | ⬆️ |
| Passing Off. | 62nd | ⬆️ | Passing Yds Allowed | 119th | ↔️ |
| Rushing Off. | 78th | ⬆️ | Rushing Def. | 113th | ⬆️ |
| Red Zone Off. | 111th | ⬆️ | Red Zone Def. | 40th | ↔️ |
| 3rd Down Conv. Off. | 101st | ⬆️ | 3rd Down Cov. Def | 86th | ↔️ |
| Scoring Off. | 65th | ⬆️ | Scoring Def. | 102nd | ⬆️ |
The Red Wolves offense got off to an agonizingly slow start last season, and it didn’t really find a footing until Week 5 against Southern Miss. Still, third down conversion remained frustratingly ineffective. The renwed strength of A-State’s offensive line and run game this season will likely improve those metrics.
Defensively, the rankings may look gnarly but the team actually performed far better than in recent seasons – note the effectiveness of the Red Zone defense. While the linebackers and defensive line are better than advertised, the A-State secondary isn’t deep enough to shelve the antacids. If the Red Wolves can continue with a “bend-don’t-break” approach, the offense should be able to keep the defense from working too hard.
Red Wolves Keystone Player #3: Jaylen Raynor, QB
It seems a little too obvious to point to the quarterback as a team’s keystone player, but Raynor’s maturation in his second year behind center is hyper-critical to the Red Wolves’ season. Lasat year, Raynor assumed the starting position in Week 5 after demonstrating an ability to move the offense against FCS Stony Brook. By season’s end, he put up 2,550 yards and 17 passing downs to earn the SBC Freshman Player of the Year Award.
“It’s not enough to get a year older,” said Raynor at Sun Belt Media Days, echoing his coach’s new mantra. “I have to be a year better.” Absolutely. Raynor was susceptible to freshman mistakes last year, tossing seven picks and sometimes getting flustered out of the pocket. But make no mistake, this is Raynor’s offense. While Timmy McClain is assigned to challenge him, and Josh Flowers is tasked to succeed him, Raynor is the unchallenged leader of the Red Wolves huddle.
Game the Red Wolves Cannot Lose: Week 1, University of Central Arkansas
The Sun Belt does not lose to the FCS. That said, UCA is an excellent FCS team who owns the historical win-loss advantage. This season, the Red Wolves have the opportunity to even the series at 13 victories apiece. More importantly, Arkansas State receives a capable, enthusiastic in-state challenger to set the season’s pace. To lose the game would not only create considerable consternation for the Red Wolves faithful, it would make an unsightly stain on the season no matter what the final record. After all, Blake Anderson’s 2015 Red Wolves may have won an SBC title, but what everybody still remembers most is that dispiriting, aggravating, inexcusable loss to the Bears.
Two Essential Newcomers: Malik Hornsby (WR) and Marvin Ham (LB)
Much has been made of the acquisition of Malik Hornsby, the four-star quarterback originally signed by Arkansas, transferred to Texas State, then arrived to Arkansas State to reinvent himself as a wide receiver. It was originally thought that Hornsby would provide additional value as a kind of wildcat/change-of-pace QB, but his track-star speed and elite size displayed in practice has cemented his exclusive role as a wide receiving deep threat. In tandem with Sun Belt All Conference wide receivers Courtney Jackson and Corey Rucker, Hornsby’s growth as a receiver could make for an all-time great receivers corp at Arkansas State.
Mavin Ham, who spent a few years at Colorado, is drawing highly positive reviews at linebacker alongside SBC All Conference selection Charles Wilekes. Losing both Malique Straker and Javante Mackey was a blow, but this position seems as buttoned-down as ever with the arrival of Ham and contributions from Cam Jeffrey and Dane Motley.
Position Evaluations
Early in the summer, we analyzed the major position groups. You can access them here:
Final Analysis
“We’re not in a conference that you can be beat by two or three teams,” observed Coach Butch Jones. “Every team can beat you.” This is an astute observation. The Sun Belt is a very strong football conference, imbued with smart coaches and NFL-quality talent. If you narrow the lens, you’ll find almost no breathing room in the Sun Belt West, with four of seven teams staffed and positioned for a divisional championship now.
The Red Wolves come into the season with advantages – a stable coaching staff, a veteran behind center, and “two-spot depth” across position groups. The schedule doesn’t do the Red Wolves any favors, but it does provide the out-of-conference challenges necessary to prep for a contentious Sun Belt season.
If you seek a clue to Butch Jones’ thoughts on the season, examine his language. In years past, he often referenced a host of detriments to the upcoming season – “lack of competitive depth,” “we started from Year Zero,” “we need to learn how to win.” This year, he appears to have nothing but confidence in the team, not longer couching strengths with weaknesses, but supporting weaknesses by falling back on strengths. “I like this team,” said Coach Jones, and its believable.
What are the expectations? Vegas says six. Fair enough. We think eight wins is not unreasonable. A divisional title is not unreasonable. A conference title is not unreasonable. Of course, this can be said for many teams in the Sun Belt. However, it can be said with confidence for the Red Wolves.
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