Last December, a couple days before Christmas, the Red Wolves took on the Northern Illinois Huskies in the Camellia Bowl. It was a defensive rock fight with both teams having trouble putting up points. About twelve minutes through the fourth quarter, the Huskies had a 21-13 lead. Jaylen Raynor, the freshman QB for Arkansas State, led a charge down the field, capping an eight play, 86 yard drive with a 13 yard touchdown strike to Corey Rucker. The 2-point conversion failed, and with two and half minutes left in the game, Arkansas State set up for the onside kick.

Some might say that if your chances for winning hinges on an onside kick, you’ve already lost. After all, collecting an onside kick is less a skill and more a clown car crashing into a telephone pole and discovering oil. Still, a chance is a chance, and when the football left the kicker’s foot, it was evident to everyone in the Crampton Bowl that the Red Wolves had recovered.

Evident to everyone except to one man – a referee – who flagged A-State offsides (called on Adam Jones, the coaches son). There was no review. But Butch Jones called timeout twice to make his hearty opinion known. Northern Illinois would win the game, and A-State would finish the season 6-7, all because of the blown call.

Except, the blown call wasn’t why Arkansas State lost – the team lost because it neglected to take advantage of opportunities or failed to execute at the proper moments. What contributed more to the loss than the errant call was the Red Wolves failing to spot a trick play from a kicker who set up for a 42 yard field goal when it was clear that he wasn’t capable of nailing one from the ten. Everybody knew the trick play was coming except Arkansas State, who watched helplessly as kicker Tom Foley completed a 32 yard TD pass to Kanon Woodill.

My point is that one blown call doesn’t win or lose you a game. Victory or defeat is determined by a culmination of events that transpire during the entirety of the game. I’m not sure why I mention all of this now.

Staring Into the Eye of the Hurricane

The Golden Hurricane had a tarnished season in 2023, winning only four contests and enduring a six game losing streak that was only broken by an end-of-season victory over East Carolina. The architect of that victory? Quarterback Kirk Francis, who returns as the starter this season. Francis was instrumental in Tulsa’s season-opening 62-28 victory over Northwestern State, throwing for 299 yards and 4 touchdowns.

The caveat? Northwestern State isn’t exactly a powerhouse FCS program. Rocked by scandal, Northwestern State forfeited half its games last season. Even with this chaos, the Demons enjoyed a 75 yard touchdown run on Tulsa, and then returned a missed field goal for a TD. That said, Tulsa did put up 600+ yards of offense on the Demons, and that’s not easy to dismiss.

The Golden Hurricane has 53 new players on the roster, including 27 freshmen and 15 transfers. That’s a lot of guys getting acclimated to head coach Kevin Wilson’s program. Though Tulsa isn’t expected to compete in the American this season, the Golden Hurricane have intriguing talent on both sides of the ball. Running back Anthony Watkins piled up 890 yards last season, and wide receiver Kamdyn Benjamin (who is a dangerous return man recently named the AAC Special Team Player of the Week) totaled 6 TD receptions. Defensively, Owen Ostroski and Vontroy Malone are two talented guys in the trench who had 5.5 sacks between them in 2023.

Loaded With Bayer

First-team Sun Belt center Jacob Bayer is expected to return to his position on Saturday. “Bayer’s impact will be major,” said head coach Butch Jones. “He’s a leader on the team” While Jones was quick to praise Bayer’s understudy Mason Meyers, the return of Bayer (out with a torn ACL sustained in Spring) is essential to the success of the offense. Bayer is the top-rated center in the SBC and Group of Five and second in the FBS according to PFF.

Additionally, the Red Wolves expect tackle Elijiah Zollicoffer to return, while all-conference offensive lineman Makilan Thomas is still “day-to-day.”

From Bears to Canes

Last Saturday, the Red Wolves defense shut down the UCA bears in the first half, but the A-State offense scored only 12 points. Butch Jones wants to see tougher, more physical play in the trenches. He didn’t like the red zone effort or the fourth down executions. “(UCA) made us pay for not executing,” said Jones, who was also critical of the team’s approach entering the second half, when the Bears torched the Red Wolves for 31 points.

The Bears managed to break off big runs in the second half to put themselves in position for easy goal line scores. Offensively, the Red Wolves found more synergy in the second half, but star quarterback Jaylen Raynor struggled with his accuracy all evening. The return of Bayer and Zollicoffer should remedy some of the issues, but Raynor needs to find his consistency if the Red Wolves want to make a statement against Tulsa.

Hurricane Watch: Kirk Francis, QB

Last year, Tulsa’s pass game was low-potency, with a Golden Hurricane signal caller throwing for more than 200 yards just twice in eight games. Francis, a no-star true freshman sitting behind Cardell Williams and current Thundering Herd QB Braylon Braxton, made a dent in Week 9, chucking throws in a 33-26 loss to Charlotte. Francis would finish out the year the Tulsa starter, averaging 297 passing yards per contest.

Francis clearly gave Tulsa a jolt in the passing game, and Kamdyn Benjamin is a clear beneficiary, totaling five TDs and averaging 115 yards per game since Francis took over the huddle. The Red Wolves will need to shut down the Francis to Benjamin connection if they want to see another checkmark in the win column.

Braving the Storm: Jaylen Raynor, QB

Raynor passed for 317 yards, totaled two touchdowns and tossed a pick in the win over Central Arkansas – but it was not a pretty 317 yards. Raynor struggled to complete open lateral passes, and most of his deep throws fell short. Now in his sophomore season, the weight of leadership lands on Raynor’s shoulders, and he will need to rediscover his touch and accuracy if the Red Wolves expect to win many games moving forward.

The return of Bayer and Zollicoffer to the offensive line helps. But what might have helped more was the winning drive of Saturday’s game when he led the time to a touchdown. When the game was on the line, the team turned to Raynor to win it. Clearly, Butch Jones and his staff have faith in his young quarterback.

The Final Analysis

The near loss to UCA will either send a needed jolt through this talented Red Wolves team, or it will prove a grim indicator of things to come. To my eyes, there did seem to be a near-terminal nonchalance from the Red Wolves to start the second half – an overconfidence that might have come with limiting an FCS team zero points. Or maybe the UCA coaching staff saw a major flaw in the defense and reacted to it appropriately. The Bears deserve to be commended either way.

Look for the Red Wolves to be all business on Saturday. The team will want to reaffirm their authenticity; they’ll want all questions regarding their ability put to rest by the time Tulsa hits the busses on their way out of Jonesboro. I expect we’ll see that.

PHOTOS: Mix of mine, a shot taken from the Tulsa website, and Sun Belt Media