Sun Belt Heat Week 4: Shake the Polaroid

Match Ups, Game Times, Analysis, Broadcast and Vegas Odds for Every Game in the Sun Belt

The Sun Belt is coming into focus, but slowly, so slowly. Programs that outside pundits expected to carry the conference – Troy, South Alabama and James Madison – are as we thought: depleted. Meanwhile, programs that we expected to spend the season fermenting into wine for future years have had early success – Georgia State and ULM.

And yet, the image remains unclear for a good many teams. Are the Cajuns really back? Can Arkansas State truly compete? Is Marshall a contender in the East? Can the Sun Belt get a win over a Top 25 team? So many questions left unanswered, but Week Four make provide some valuable Polaroid shakes, starting with the first SBC Conference game of the season when Appalachian State takes on South Alabama on Thursday night.

SUN BELT ON BYE: Georgia State, Old Dominion, Texas State

Thursday, September 19

South Alabama Jaguars (1-2) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1), 6:30 PM CST, ESPN, -7.5 Mountaineers

Well iron my cummerbund! Sun Belt on the ESPN Flagship on Thursday night! ESPN loves visiting Boone, where the air is thin and the crowd looks good on TV. Jaguars enter Appalachia having just scored a SBC record 87 points on Northwestern State, which may be the worst school playing FCS football right now, but still, it’s hard to score 87 points. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers hate East Carolina and they sated their rancor with a 21-19 win behind 424 yards and two TDs from quarterback Joey Aguilar. The matchup between Aguilar and Jaguars’ Gio Lopez should be entertaining, but South Alabama doesn’t have enough defense to put the brakes on the Mountaineers

THE PICK: Mountaineers, points or no points

Saturday, September 21

Marshall Thundering Herd (1-1) @ #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0), 11:00 AM CST, FOX, -39.5 Buckeyes

After a 31-14 loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2, Marshall took a knee and spend Week 3 contemplating life and the choices that alter destiny’s stream. The Herd represents the third Group of Five team the Buckeyes have played this season, and quite frankly, the G5 hasn’t presented much challenge to Ohio State, who crushed Akron 52-6 in Week 1, then followed that murder up with a 56-0 slaughtering of Western Michigan. Can Charlie Huff whip up enough magic to save face for the G5? QB Stone Earl and running back AJ Turner need have the wheels, but Earl needs to find more connection with his receivers if they want to give Ohio State a scare.

THE PICK: Ohio State, but SBC pride has me picking the Herd to cover

James Madison Dukes (2-0) @ North Carolina Tar Heels (3-0), 11:00 AM CST, ACC Network, -10.5 Tar Heels

No offense to the Bulldogs, but the 13-6 win over Gardner-Webb didn’t give Dukes fans a great deal of confidence, especially after allowing Charlotte to play competitively in Week 1. Gaining only 285 yards on an FCS team isn’t something we’re accustomed to from James Madison, and Dukes quarterback Alonza Barnett needs to be more productive against North Carolina. The RB combo of George Pettaway and Tyler Purdy may be the key as Barnett irons out his game. Good news: Dukes allowed only seven to Charlotte. Tar Heels allowed 20 to the 49ers.

THE PICK: Big test for new head coach Bob Chesney. I think Tar Heels get the home crowd edge.

O’DOUL’S “MAINTAIN YOUR EDGE” SUN BELT GAME OF THE WEEK: Tulane Green Wave (1-2) @ Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (2-0), 11:00 AM CST, ESPNU , -3 Green Wave

Are the Cajuns back? Well, HC Michael Desormeaux is 2-0 on the season, but let’s face it – wins over Grambling and Kennesaw State aren’t very revealing. In comes Tulane, coached by former head Trojan Jon Summral and a popular G5 darling until falling to lightly to Kansas State and heavily to Oklahoma. Unlike the Cajuns, Tulane has played tough opponents this season and likely won’t be intimidated by the Cajun unwelcome it will receive. Still, Louisiana QB Ben Wooldridge is playing good football, and Tulane is having some problems with turnovers.

THE PICK: A spicy matchup calls for a spicy outcome. Cajuns squeak.

Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-1) @ #20 Iowa State Cyclones (2-0), 1:00 PM CST, ESPN+, -21.5 Cyclones

It’s kind of amusing to think that a team that hasn’t scored more than 21 points in a game this season is going to outscore the Red Wolves by the same amount, but we live in odd times. Against Michigan, the Red Wolves didn’t have too much trouble moving the chains, collecting 17 first downs in a 28-18 loss. However, red zone effectiveness was a problem, not to mention the A-State kicker doinking not one but two field goal attempts off the upright. They’ll need more red zone efficiency against Iowa State, who ranks a reasonable 48th in total defense on the young season.

THE PICK: Don’t be surprised if Arkansas State weaponizes lessons learned against Michigan

Virginia Cavaliers (2-1) @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3-0), 1:00 PM CST, ESPN+, -3 Cavaliers

Apart from Georgia State’s well-done handling of Vanderbilt in Week 3, the Sun Belt has missed good opportunities to add P4 feathers to its cap. Coastal receives a prime opportunity on Saturday by hosting the Cavaliers, the Jermaine Jackson of college football. The Chants are 3-0 with wins over Jacksonville State and William & Mary, plus a road victory of Temple that seemed more a struggle than necessary. Meanwhile, Virginia won by a single point to Wake Forest in Week 2 the feel to Maryland in Week 3, and now must suffer the cornea damage of playing an entire college football game on the Chanticleers’ teal field.

THE PICK: I don’t believe Coastal is real and I still think the Chants defeat Virginia

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-2) @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks (0-3), 2:00 PM CST, ESPN+, -6 Gamecocks

Man, it’s gotta be bad in Hattiesburg if an 0-3 Gamecocks are a two field goal favorite over the Golden Eagles, a team that surrendered 28 straight to USF after leading the Bulls 14-0. Southern Miss has found an exciting yang to Tate Rodemaker’s ying – Ethan Crawford, who has wheels in addition to an arm. The two combine for three throwing touchdowns on Saturday. Shouldn’t two quarterbacks be enough to beat Jacksonville State, a program expected to compete for the CUSA title but has lost to Coastal, Louisville and Eastern Michigan. Can Will Hall really survive become Jacksonville State’s first win of the season?

THE PICK: Surely the Golden Eagles win, right? Right?

Florida A&M Rattlers (2-1) @ Troy Trojans (0-3), 6:00 PM CST, ESPN+, NO ODDS GIVEN

The Rattlers were living a happy life with two weeks of winning before taking a terrible thumping at Miami. The Trojans desperately hope to deepen that thumped feeling, enduring its first 0-3 start since the ancient days of King Priam. Troy play Iowa pretty tough on Saturday, at one point owning a 14-10 lead. And to be fair, Troy has played a tough schedule, losing to the before mentioned Hawkeyes, Memphis and Nevada. You deserve some quality Rattlers time, Gerad Parker!

THE PICK: Parker finally going to get his first Trojan victory

Georgia Southern Eagles (2-1) @ #5 Ole Miss Rebels Bears Shark Things (3-0), 6:45 PM CST, SEC Network, -36 Ole Miss

Ole Miss scored 76 point in Week 1, 52 points in Week 2, and 40 points last week against Wake Forest. You can see Ole Miss losing steam! In fact, the difference between Week 1 point and Week 3 points is 36 – the Vegas spread? What is this, the DaVinci Code? Listen, I’m telling you right now, you’re not outscoring the Eagles by 36. I don’t care if your QB is named Jaxon Dart or how many mascot trademarks you own.

THE PICK: Ole Miss Whatevers, sure, but take those points.

ULM Warhawks (2-0) @ #1 Texas Longhorns (3-0), 7:00 PM CST, SEC+/ESPN+, -44.5 Longhorns

You might believe that Texas and the Manning Experience will absolutely pile drive the Warhawks for 44 points. But if there is one head coach who can have ULM ready for the #1 team in the land, it might be Bryant Vincent. After passing their FCS test, the Warhawks slobberknocked UAB 32-6, and suddenly we’re all looking at ULM in a different light – a frightening, unsettling light! Like they might be possessed by the demon Beelzebub.

THE PICK: The Warhawks have a chance (to beat the spread)

IMAGE: a little me, a lot Sun Belt Media