A couple weeks before the 2024 college football season opened, FunBelt Podcast welcomed professional college pigskin analyst Phil Steele to the show. As usual, he was well prepared and articulate regarding the Sun Belt, dropping astute opinions about which Sun Belt teams looked to contend, which would surprise and who would struggle. Towards the end of the interview, we asked Phil who he thought was the strongest G5 conference in college football.

He was complimentary about the Sun Belt and the American, but he cited the Mountain West, which surprised us a little. The Sun Belt was often named by members of the sporting community as the strongest conference. “The Sun Belt has just lost too much talent,” explained Phil.

Phil was right. Four games into the season, with the majority of out-of-conference games decided, it’s clear that the Sun Belt has lost a step in 2024. With respects to James Madison, who defeated North Carolina 70-50, and Georgia State, who nudged by Vanderbilt 36-32, the first four weeks for the Sun Belt have been a disappointing fail. Too many missed opportunities. Too many blow-out losses. Too many SBC programs ranking in the bottom third of the FBS statistical metrics.

Five SBC programs rank in the bottom 30 for total offense (Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Southern Miss, Old Dominion and ULM). Five SBC programs rank in the bottom 30 for total defense (Old Dominion, Arkansas State, Southern Miss, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern). When the Sun Belt hosted favorable match ups at home – Texas State vs Arizona State, Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia, Louisiana vs Tulane, Georgia Southern vs Boise State, South Alabama vs North Texas, Nevada vs Troy, East Carolina vs Old Dominion, South Florida vs Southern Miss, Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss – the SBC failed to notch the wins. The Sun Belt struggled against the FCS (Arkansas State vs UCA, Louisiana vs Lamar, JMU vs Gardner Webb), and have been annihilated by Top 25 programs. The gap in college football is widening the way the universe is expanding.

Phil Steele’s point is made. NIL transfers contributed to the drain, as did the end of COVID-extensions. Heck, six star players were drafted by the NFL. It isn’t just a roster drain. Five head coaches left the Sun Belt, too. Overall, the talent in the Sun Belt is too low to compete against the Power 4 and, in many cases, the upper tier of the Group of Five.

The Sun Belt enters conference play ingloriously. As of this moment, James Madison is the only serious contender for a College Football Playoffs spot, and even after the high-profile victory over North Carolina, one wonders if its schedule is enough to fend off UNLV, Northern Illinois and (forehead slap) Liberty. These are uncertain times for the Sun Belt.

IMAGE: AI monstrosity