The last three games between Troy and Arkansas State have been woeful lopsided affairs, with the Red Wolves enduring the slings and arrows of a painful rebuild while the Trojans enjoyed a golden age of championships – and the inevitable coaching transitions that comes with success. Since 2016, Arkansas State has matched wits against Neal Brown, Chip Lindsey, Jon Sumrall and now Gerad Parker, most recently the OC for Notre Dame but now charged with restoring a program that has lost a generation of transformative players.

Only 36% of Troy’s starters returned from last season. Player’s lost, either by transfer or graduation, include running back Kimani Vidal, quarterback Gunnar Watson, wide receiver Jabre Barber, lead sacker Javon Solomon and lead tackler Jayden McDonald. Wide receiver Chris Lewis, expected to be a leader on the offense, announced over the summer that he was out for the season with a cancer diagnosis (a disease he has since defeated). Parker arrived to the head coach office at Troy and discovered a music Sumrall didn’t want to face.

It’s been a bruising season for Troy, who is an un-Trojan-like 1-6 with an offense that ranks next to last in the Sun Belt. Starting quarterback Goose Crowder, a transfer from West Virginia, is now out for the season with an ambiguous “upper body injury,” leaving sophomore Tucker Kilcrease or 6’4″ junior Mathew Caldwell to stand behind center. The position could use a spark – the passing offense is ranked 101st in the nation. Its run game, once the program’s offensive identity, is also ranked 107th, barely accumulating 116 yards a game. Even the team’s legendary red zone defense – once a Top 10 unit – is ranked an uninspiring 88th.

Sun Belt Entropy, the most powerful force in the universe, spares no one. Not even the Trojans.

Red Wolves Look More Wolfish

“It was the most complete half of football we played all season,” said Butch Jones, referring to the second half of a 44-28 win over Southern Miss on Saturday. It’s difficult to disagree with this assessment, unless you want to trade metrics against the team’s second half against Tulsa. Either way, the Red Wolves defense that looked miserable against the Golden Eagles run attack bore down and battened the hatches in the third and fourth quarters, holding Southern Miss to just one score while smothering the Golden Eagles with brutally long possessions.

“It was the most selfless game we played all year,” added Coach Jones, noting that three receivers caught TD passes from Jaylen Raynor, who looked more like his SBC Freshman of the Year self.

However, one wonders when the Red Wolves will put two great halves together for one dominate victory. Against South Alabama, the defense was stifling while the offense floundered. Against Southern Miss, the offense was potent while the defense looked completely lost (until the second half). The Red Wolves won’t need a perfect game to defeat Troy in Jonesboro, but the schedule only gets more difficult moving forward, and complete execution wouldn’t be a bad habit to get into.

Butch Speak

You can’t have great habits without great practice

Trojan to Saddle: Devante Ross, Junior, Wide Receiver

For all of Troy’s gridiron woes, Devante Ross is not one of them. The 5’11” 161-pound receiver has hauled in 8 touchdowns and amassed 625 receiving yards. “The word I can use to describe him is explosive,” said Coach Jones during his Tuesday presser. “He can ruin the game in a hurry.” Ross has only been held out of the end zone in two games this season.

Red Wolf to Wolf Out: Malik Hornsby, Junior, Wide Receiver

According to Coach Butch Jones, Malik Hornsby “adds a whole another element” to the Red Wolves offensive scheme, which was evident during his electrifying 73-yard touchdown run. The man has size, and he has elite speed, yet we’ve only seen him a handful of times this season. “His volume of plays will expanded when he can execute them on a day in day out basis,” said Coach Jones. “He’s understanding his role and embracing his role.” Look for Hornsby’s role to increase, starting with the home game against Troy.

Ja’Quez Cross and the Red Wolves Run Game is Cooking

Cross put up 117 yard on nine carries in the loss to Texas State. The next week, he was given double the number of carries and racked up 127 yards and a touchdown. It’s taken a few weeks (plus some), but the offensive line and A-State’s core of talented RBs are finally finding some synergy, developing into the offensive weapon that was promised at the start of the season.

Meanwhile, Zak Wallace hasn’t put up impressive-looking numbers since Tulsa in Week 2, but his hard yards gained in the fourth quarter of Southern Miss were instrumental in sealing the victory. Has the ground game risen from its grave just in time to make a run for the Sun Belt West? Troy’s 108th ranked run defense might be another catalyst that spurs the process.

The Final Analysis

Troy isn’t very good this year, which feels strange after several consecutive years of producing bruising victories for the glory of the Sun Belt West. However, just like the Golden Eagles, the Trojans are not to be taken lightly. The defensive front, led by 6′ 4″, 240-pound defensive end Phillip Lee, made life hectic for South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez, who found himself eating turf four times. Troy will come after you.

Still, problems at quarterback are real for the Trojans. Neither Kilcrease or Caldwell have demonstrated much mastery, leaving the brilliant Ross to conjure his wizardry with a limited amount magic dust. The run game behind Damian Green and Gerald Taylor has yielded just three touchdowns. Troy is scoring less than 20 points per game, which puts a lot of pressure on the defense, and that might sound familiar to Arkansas State fans. It is crucial that the Red Wolves offense continue to move the chains as it did against Southern Miss. Momentum can be a powerful thing. Just ask Isaac Newton.

Images: My own, a Sun Belt Media addition, and an AI monstrosity