Neither the Red Wolves – in Year Four of the Butch Jones Era – nor the Panthers – in Year One of the Dell McGee Era – have the internal resources required to mitigate unforced implosions. Georgia State, Conqueror of the Commodores, have proven themselves capable of “hanging around” and making a game of their contests. But they haven’t the closers to win. Arkansas State has shown themselves superior to conference basement dwellers, but fold dramatically when the competition is raised a level.

This mix of ineptitude is likely why Vegas oddsmakers have thrown up their hands and made Georgia State a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday, deducing that the home confines of Atlanta and running back Freddie Brock offer the slim edge needed for a Panthers victory. They might be right. The Red Wolves are terrible on the road, having lost four games, three in blowout fashion. The Red Wolves are also awful at preventing the run, ranking 126th nationally in providing a ground defense with Southern Miss the only team in conference performing worse.

When Last These Titans Met

When this match-up was a yearly occurrence, the results were lopsided in Arkansas State’s favor: four straight wins from 2013 to 2016. Once conference expansion set in, victories have come every other meeting, with Georgia State coming out on top last, way back in 2021.

Head Butt’n Shawn Elliot coached the Panthers them days. He steered the Panthers to a 28-20 victory over first year head coach Butch Jones, with the immortal Darren Grainger out dueling the mighty Layne Hatcher. Current Red Wolves receivers Adam Jones and Corey Rucker combined for 42 yards that day.

Georgia State Has Settled on a QB

The Panthers opened the season with Penn State/Pittsburg transfer Christian Veilleux behind center, who produced 1,300 passing yards and nine touchdowns against six picks. He is also the architect of Georgia State’s two wins against Chattanooga and Vanderbilt.

However, the wheels began to wobble against Georgia Southern when he tossed three picks. After a loss to Marshall (in which another pick was thrown), McGee turned to Zach Gibson, a 6’2″ redshirt senior who arrived to Atlanta via Akron via Georgia Tech. Gibson hasn’t been spectacular behind center for the Panthers, but Coach Butch Jones said he had “moxie” and he’s more careful, having just thrown one pick and finding productive synergy with junior wideout Ted Hurst (606 yards, 8 touchdowns).

What On Earth Is Going On With Arkansas State’s Defense?

Since stymying South Alabama to just 160 ground yards in a 18-16 win, the Red Wolves defense hasn’t looked nearly the same. The unit surrenders huge swatches of yards on the ground, culminating to a humbling performance against Louisiana, who averaged nearly nine yards per run attempt.

Yes, there have been injuries, most notably to defensive end Jayden Jones and defensive tackle Ethan Hassler, who is just now easing into the lineup. The problem lies in depth. There isn’t much of it. Size may be an issue too. Against Louisiana, the Red Wolves recorded zero TFLs and no sacks. The defense didn’t record a sack on Troy, either. Arkansas State ranks next to last in sacks, with only Georgia State recording fewer.

Panther to Prune: Freddie Brock, Junior, Running Back

Brock has more than twice as many carries as next-in-line back Michel Dukes, and has accrued 600 yards and three touchdowns for his efforts. The Panthers aren’t the ground team they were last season when Georgia State steamrolled opponents behind Marcus Carroll. But Brock is effective if leaned on, recording 124 yards on 18 carries against Marshall. If Dell McGee watches film, he’ll be tempted to give a similar number of carries to Brock on Saturday.

Red Wolves to Rise: Justin Parks and Marvin Ham, Senior, Linebackers

Linebackers Marvin Ham and Justin Parks lead the Red Wolves with 70 tackles apiece, but with the defensive line struggling to close running lanes, the team may need even more from this capable duo.

Three Games Left But What to Play For?

At this point, the Panthers have only pride and reps to play for, which isn’t a bad thing. In Dell McGee’s first year, he is afforded plenty of leash. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves have bowl contention and slender divisional hopes to motivate them, but what the staff may not admit aloud is that they have the fans’ confidence to win, too. While this team has slotted some impressive, come-from-behind victories, the manner by which the wins and the losses arrive isn’t inspiring.

It’s difficult to point a a single aspect of the game for which the Red Wolves excel. Arkansas State ranks 102nd in scoring offense. It ranks 114th in scoring defense. It ranks 104th for passing yards allowed, and 126th for rushing defense. The offense only seems to hum with 2:00 left on the clock. The defense seems helpless against run schemes. The fact of the matter is, this Red Wolves team is not an improvement over last year’s Red Wolves’ team, event though it features more experience at key positions. The momentum created by last year’s modest six-win season has ground to a halt.

The Final Analysis

The Red Wolves should win this game. Butch Jones himself compared the Panthers to Troy, which considering how narrowly A-State defeated two-win Troy, may be his way of mitigating expectations. In year four, Butch Jones’ Red Wolves should destroy Dell McGee’s year one Panthers. A-State should be too strong in the trenches, should be too experienced in the backfield, and should be too well-practiced to make mistakes.

But in reality, this game will likely represent the 2.5 points Vegas predicted. And that’s not great.