Is it better to be lucky or good? I have no idea because I’m neither, but in my opinion, you have to be at least a little good to be lucky. In the case of Arkansas State football, luck is a construct that may be manipulated by select levers controlled by Butch Jones and his team.
Nobody reacts favorably to “well, you just got lucky.” It implies that you succeeded in spite of your considerable shortcomings, and that can put you on the defensive. As the late great Harvey Dent once said, I make my own luck. But let’s be honest with ourselves: Arkansas State football ranks near bottom in many primary metrics. Where it ranks high is supernaturally good fortune.
This tweet/x floated through my timeline the other day:
I don’t know Thor, and I’m not sure what SOW is or how +3.8 is derived or even what it represents, but luck is a concept I understand, and it has been attributed to this year’s Red Wolves football team by more people than Thor. Why? The 7-4 Red Wolves are 6-0 in one-score games, which leads the nation. Many of those wins have come with a fourth quarter score, with most of those a result of a last second score.
Data points are boring, but the anecdotes can be fun. Consider Week 1’s game against UCA. The Red Wolves were up 20-10 after the third quarter when all hell broke lose. The Bears scored 21 unanswered points to take a 31-27 lead with just 55 seconds left on the game clock – more than enough time for the Jaylen Raynor/Corey Rucker Connection to march down the field. Seven yards from the goal line and with six seconds on the clock, Raynor found Rucker in the corner of the end zone for what would eventually be ruled the game winning touchdown. Officials would later say the catch should not have counted, but too late, suckers. UCA, who had an ESPN 99% win favorability projection with 31 seconds left in the game, proved to be the first of many unlucky A-State opponents.
For example, the Red Wolves defense would hold Tulsa scoreless in the fourth quarter to cling to a 4th quarter victory, surviving a rare field goal miss from Clune Van Andel. The very same Van Andel nailed the game winning field goal against South Alabama for a 18-16 victory. With just 1.44 left on the clocks, the Jaguars had a 71% ESPN win favorability.
A few weeks later, Troy fell victim to Arkansas State’s deadly 2-minute drill, falling 34-31 with :33 on the clock and officially ending courtesy of a Trevian Thomas interception. According to ESPN’s win-probability metric, Troy had an 83.5% chance to winning the game with just 55 seconds left on the clock.
The Red Wolves would next win by a touchdown on the road to Georgia State, with a Trevian Thomas interception once again ending the game. For good measure, Thomas nailed the coffin on ULM with a pick last week. The universe has given a new name to Luck, and it is “Trevian Thomas.”
A couple of one-win victories is lucky. But six? Nobody is that lucky. One might choose to see a grand design at play, but what purpose is served by stressing out the fanbase with so many narrow escapes?
“What you are witnessing,” said Butch Jones after the win over ULM, “is a team that has learned how to win.”
Fair enough, tut must these wins come courtesy of so many Corey Rucker end zone corner catches and Trevian Thomas interceptions? Why must this team wait until there’s only a few seconds left in the game before the offense punches the gas? Are we philosophically opposed to running up the score? Are we addicted to the adrenaline generated from escaping death?
It may just be a function of Butch Jones’ approach to football, which is unlike previous, bombs-away coaches. He wants to dominate the trenches. He wants to field a power run game. He wants to play fast, but he also hates committing turnovers, so he is focused intensely on mitigating mistakes. He’s all about field position and clock management. Unfortunately, Butch Jones doesn’t yet have all the pieces to execute that approach. The skill sets don’t neatly match the game plan. Some things work well. Some things don’t. As a result, games are kept close until the right moment to strike the deathblow.
Or maybe the Red Wolves are just lucky, and that’s a skill in of itself. To be “in the right place at the right time” takes practice. Obtaining a favorable referee ruling is a matter of building a solid benefit of the doubt. Having the opportunity to score on the game’s last possession is just part of the game plane. It’s good to be good. It’s good to be lucky. It’s great to be a bit of both.
PHOTOS FROM A-STATE ATHLETICS AND JUSTIN MANNING
Howlraiser 