Old Dominion opened its season with 23-19 loss to South Carolina, then followed it up with a 20-14 defeat to East Carolina. Those losses set a weird and unusual precedent for the Monarchs: one score defeats. Of ODU’s seven losses this season, six have come by 8-points or less. Congratulations to Virginia Tech, who won by 20 over Rickey Rhane’s unlucky guys.

On the opposite end of the conference’s footprint, the Red Wolves started its season with a 3-point victory over Central Arkansas, and then beat Tulsa by four points the next week. Once again, a strange precedent was set. Of the seven games the Red Wolves have won, six were decided by a single score. Hats off to Southern Miss, sad victim of Arkansas State’s lone multi-score victory.

Meet the Sun Belt’s Yin/Yang, two programs residing on the opposite ends of good fortune. For Old Dominion fans, the prospect of coming so tantalizingly close to a ten win season must be unbearable, especially considering all chances for receiving a bowl invite are now zero-point-zero percent. Meanwhile. Red Wolves fans enter the game with frayed nerves, having seen so many wins come courtesy of fourth quarter comebacks. The official post-game snack for both teams is Tums™.

The consequence of this game may be more that one program improving its record and another absorbing a disappointing L. We may be witnessing the catastrophic collision of matter and anti-matter. The utter disintegration of the universe could be triggered at first contact during opening kickoff. Have your affairs in order before the 2:00 PM kick.

When Last These Titans Met

Surprise, muthafucka! It was a one score game, played in Norfolk. The immortal AJ Mayer served as the Red Wolves leading ground gainer with 46 yards and a touchdown while ODU’s Hayden Wolfe threw for 279 yards and a pair of TDs to lead the Monarchs to a 29-26 victory.

Bidding Adios to Arkansas State Men™

Saturday is Senior Day for Arkansas State, who will bid farewell to as many as 26 seniors. (Not sure who’s getting medical exemptions and what-have-you.) Jonesboro will see one last regular season game from A-State stalwarts like Jacob Bayer, Trevian Thomas, Courtney Jackson, Adam Jones, Zak Wallace, Mehki Butler, Charles Willekes, Justin Parks and a host of dudes who stood by Coach Butch Jones through thick and thin. Bring tissues.

Colton Joseph is the Jaylen Raynor of 2024

When the Red Wolves entered Week 4 last year in need of an offensive spark, Butch Jones handed the pill to freshman Jaylen Raynor, who sizzled through through the remainder of the season schedule to SBC Freshman of the Year honors. The magic dust floated eastward to Norfolk this season when Rickey Rahne turned to freshman slinger Colton Joseph, a 6’2″ 205-lb dual threat quarterback who assumed command in Week 5. Joseph has 22 touchdowns on the season – eleven through the air and 11 on the ground. His 647 rushing yards is 8th best in the conference. Were it not for running back Ahmad Hardy of ULM, Joseph would be the easy frontrunner for SBC Freshman of the Year.

Injury Has Taken Its Toll on the Red Wolves Defensive Line

Butch Jones confirmed that SMU transfer DE Jayden Jones is done for the season, joining Ethan Hassler and Micaiah Overton on the sidelines. Preventing the run and applying pressure to the quarterback have been adventures all season, and the loss of theses guys puts some pressure on those who remain to put the brakes of Joseph and running back Aaron Young, an underrated back who tallied 111 yards and two touchdowns against Marshall last week.

Monarch to Usurp: Jahron Manning, Junior, Safety

ODU churns out stellar tacklers the way Hallmark produces Christmas romances. This year, Old Dominion’s Hot Frosty is safety Jahron Manning with 84 total tackles and three interceptions. The match-up between Manning and Arkansas State’s Corey Rucker should be one for the ages.

Red Wolf to Rise: Charles Willekes, Senior, Linebacker

Senior Day is for seniors to show out, and a show out is needed from linebacker Charles Willekes, who will be the busiest man on the gridiron attempting to slam the brakes on Colton Joseph and that ODU run game, the fourth most prolific in the Sun Belt. We should see plenty of Willekes, Marvin Ham and Justin Parks on Saturday.

The Final Analysis

The odds off this being a one score game are so good it’s unlikely. That said, ODU has a number of factors working against them: 1) that trip between Norfolk and Jonesboro is no picnic, 2) playing anybody on their Senior Day adds another layer of difficulty, and 3) Arkansas State hasn’t lost at Centennial Bank Stadium all year. Ahman Hardy got his yards against the Red Wolves for ULM last week, but the A-State defense did its job on the plays that mattered most. Joseph and Young will see their fair share of positive stats on Saturday, but look for Jaylon Raynor to find a way to win the the game for the home fans one last time in 2024.

PHOTOS and IMAGES: are my own with an assist from Justin Manning of Arkansas State