Saturday night’s game in Jonesboro was a Scott Cross kind of game – methodically paced, defensively engineered and played chiefly beneath the rim. The Red Wolves, who had just dropped 100 on Southern Miss on the strength of 29 fast break points, found themselves in bruising hand-to-hand half court battles. The result was a one point victory for Troy, the last bucket made an ironic three-point shot from Terrance Ford.

By the difference of a single point, the Sun Belt went from one team determining its destiny to four teams vying for two Super-Duper Tournament Byes – a uniquely Sun Belt qualification that places its top two programs in the tournament’s semifinals as the rest of the conference eliminate each other in Huger Games fashion.

James Madison, who at one point not long ago was jockeying for mid-entry position in the SBC Tournament, suddenly find themselves in cat-seat position with previous wins over Arkansas State and Troy. The Trojans, lurking like a shark since falling to the Red Wolves earlier in the season, now have an Arkansas State win and a victory over South Alabama. (They also have losses to JMU, Arkansas State and South Alabama). The Jaguars have wins over James Madison and Arkansas State, and could complete the sweep against the Red Wolves in Jonesboro on Wednesday. It’s a sock drawer of wins-and-losses that only artificial intelligence can render meaningful.

Irregardless of the complications, were the season to end now, the Super Duper Byes would belong to South Alabama and James Madison, with Troy at the third seed and preseason favorite Arkansas State at the four. (Thanks for the clarity, Kara Richey.) As Jeff Reed of AStateNation explains, the fate of the SBC Tournament will be determined in San Marcos, with Texas State concluding its season at home against James Madison, South Alabama and Troy. How the Bobcats weld this raw power is a question too consequential to ponder over a non-alcoholic beverage.

A defeat that was bad for Arkansas State may turn out pretty good for the Sun Belt entering this final leg of the regular season. After all, fans positioned outside the conference rarely tune into one-team races. With four teams clogging the drain, eyebrows are raised for a conference many would acknowledge is experiencing a “down” year. Who will win? The methodically-paced Trojans? The well-blended transfer mix at South Alabama? The preseason favorite Arkansas State? Or the defending champions, James Madison?

Only time and, apparently, Texas State, will tell.

PHOTO:  Carla Wehmeyer – Arkansas State