I’ll sum this up for you so you can move on with your day: The Sun Belt West, anybody can win it, even ULM (maybe especially ULM). Sun Belt East, a little top heavy with James Madison and Georgia Southern being the teams to topple. Thanks to limitless portal-ing and NIL enticements, the Sun Belt is as unpredictable as ever, without a single team standing out (or winking out of existence). If Rickey Rahne and Weird Old Dominion wins the East, is it really a surprise? If the Southern Thundering Herd were to go from 1-11 to Sun Belt West kings, would we even blink? If anything, we’d say we saw it coming and give ourselves a pat on the back.

The Sun Belt West: Everybody’s Division

This may sound cowardly, but you could rank everybody in the Sun Belt 1a to 1g and call it a day. The division is almost too balanced. However emerges from the OOC the most healthy will have the greatest advantage.

Vastly Underestimated: Troy and ULM

First thing that must be said: nobody has brought more of last year’s production back to campus than Troy and ULM. You may note that these teams finished 5th and 6th in the division last season, but the overall records fail to tell the whole story. The Warhawks, led by new head coach Bryant Vincent, got off to a sizzling start in 2024, astonishing the Sun Belt with a 5-1 record – before running completely out of gas and losing six straight. Troy experienced the mirror opposite under new head coach Gerad Parker, losing seven of its first eight before putting the pieces together and closing out winning three of four.

Both Parker and Vincent entered Sun Belt Media Days brimming with confidence. Vincent may have been unable to retain wunderkind (RB) Ahmad Hardy, but most of the talent stayed aboard, enamored by Vincent’s leadership. Parker saw the most retention in the Sun Belt, including hard hitting defensive men (DL) Luis Medina and (DB) Devin Lafayette. When you have a team that believes in the program over the bag, you can make up for the recruiting stars with unity and discipline. Don’t be surprised to see these under-the-radar programs make a lot of noise this season.

Why So High? Southern Miss

Can a program go from 1-11 under Will Hall to the Sun Belt West Division championship under Charlie Huff? Unknown, except it helps to bring guys like (QB) Braylon Braxton and (CB) Josh Moten aboard from your old team. As Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones observed, Southern Miss is the team to beat because you’re essentially playing the Sun Belt Champs. An estimated 21 players followed Huff from Huntington to Hattiesburg over the off season, and if those guys can get accustomed to Delta humidity, there’s no reason why the Southern Miss Golden Eagles can’t thunder to the top of the SBC West standings.

Why So Low? Texas State and South Alabama

The Jaguars had a nice future built around quarterback Gio Lopez, except Lopez’s crystal ball pointed him to North Carolina. Oh well! Still, getting another year from defensive studs (WR) Devin Voisin and (LB) Blayne Myrick should keep the Jags contenting on the defensive side of the ball, and (RB) Kentrel Bullock can carry the rock with the best of them. So why so glum on South Alabama? Honestly, somebody has to come in last in this division, and I wasn’t feeling much of a vibe from Mobile. But if (QB) Bishop Davenport is truly ready to take over for Lopez behind center, look out. The SBC Basement is open.

Meanwhile, GJ Kinne and Texas State are talking about focusing one-game-at-a-time. But do lame ducks ever exit the conference well? Texas State enters the season with plenty of beef on the offensive line, but only Marshall returns less production to the roster than the Bobcats. Coach Kinne has done well pulling in talent from the portal, but mercenary rosters don’t always buy into the big picture. With the team moving to the Pretend 12, the bigger picture seems more like next season.

Are the Cajuns Really a Third Place Finisher?

Everything finally fit together for head coach Mike Desormeaux and the Ragin Cajuns in 2024, ending the season with a Sun Belt West title and even a shot at the college football playoffs were it not for a home slip at Tulane. However, losing to Marshall in the SBC title game, followed by a loss to TCU in the New Mexico Bowl, wasn’t ideal.

2024 might have been the season for the Cajuns. Right behind Texas State is lost production is Louisiana, who no longer has the prolific abilities of Ben Wooldridge behind center, or a number of key offensive contributors like Dre Washington, Lance LeGendre and Terrance Carter Jr. Additionally, the portal drained much of the Cajun’s talent, claiming useful guys like (CB) Caleb Anderson, (CB) Justin Agu and (LB) Carmycah Glass.

Still, Coach Desormeaux has preserved the culture and unity of Louisiana by sticking largely to traditional, high school recruiting. The dye for victory is set, and the hard-hitting defense is still led by Sun Belt First Team stars like (DB) Tyree Skipper and (DL) Jordan Lawson. You can never dismiss the Cajuns. Not ever.

Arkansas State “2nd?” Am I Some Kind of Homer?

The short answer is “yes,” but also the Red Wolves are the only team in the SBC West bringing back it’s QB1 (Jaylen Raynor), a fact buttressed by the return of the team’s starting WR1 (Corey Rucker) and RB1 (JaQuez Cross). While the team’s offensive line has a variety of new faces, there’s no doubt it’s a big O-line, with 300-pounders from top to bottom. It’s a solid offensive set up.

What gives me (and assorted others) pause is that Arkansas State is only getting back about 34% of its defensive production from last year, which means a ton of new faces at linebacker and the secondary. That may be mitigated by the talent Butch Jones has acquired from the portal (including the welcoming back of linebacker Javon Mackey). Still, the Red Wolves do have skill returning on offensive, and the defense may be better than advertised with Sun Belt First Team defender (DL) Bryan Whitehead in the trench.

The Sun Belt East: It’s Two Teams and Whoever Wants to Make Trouble

No reason to overthink the East: it’s gonna be either Georgia Southern or JMU, owning largely that both teams return their starting QBs and their overall maturation as contenders. I’m often wrong, however, which should provide plenty of hope to potential troublemakers like Old Dominion, Appalachian State and, wow, Georgia State.

The Troublemakers: Old Dominion and Appalachian State

Last year, the Monarchs put together one of the weirdest seasons in Sun Belt history, first losing three out of four in the OOC, then briefly holding the divisional lead by staring 3-1 in conference. That momentum faded, however, and Old Dominion finished with a 5-7 record. However, what ODU gained was one hell of a new starting quarterback in Colton Joseph, who not only delivered 11 touchdowns through the air, but also 11 touchdowns on the ground, making Joseph the most difficult QB in the Sun Belt for which to prepare. Plus, that Monarch defense didn’t lose strength, with tackle machines (LB) Jason Henderson and (DL) Kris Trinidad delivering the pain.

“Danger Zone” Dowell Loggains, formerly an assistant for Arkansas, South Carolina and the New York Jets, is clearly chomping at the bit as head coach for the Mountaineers. With the departure of sometimes-successful Shawn Clark, Appalachian State experienced the expected defections. But the haul Loggains has brought in via the portal is awfully difficult to discount, including: quarterback AJ Swann (LSU), RBs Rashod Dubinion (Arkansas) and Khalifa Keith (Tennessee), WRs Davion Dozier (Arkansas), LB Brayshawn Littlejohn (Missouri), DBs Emory Floyd (South Carolina) and Ja’Den McBurrows (Michigan). That’s a lot of talent.

Better Than Advertised: Georgia State

Sure, we have the Panther’s prowling the bottom of the division, but don’t be surprised if Dell McGee’s football program takes a surprising leap in 2025. After producing a 3-win season where a home win over Vanderbilt was the big highlight, McGee and his staff put together the best recruiting season in the Sun Belt, which included four-star wide receiver Derrick Avery Jr. But it might be McGee’s portal work that’s the true masterpiece, where he’s vastly improved his RB room with the additions of Jordon Simmons (Ole Miss), Branson Robinson (Georgia) and Rashad Amos (Memphis). The upgrades in the locker room led one Georgia State insider attending Sun Belt Media Days to pronounce this year’s Panther’s team to to the best…ever!

Basement Renters: Coastal Carolina and Marshall

Neither the Chanticleers or the Thundering Herd are programs commonly associated with haunting divisional cellars, but Marshall is in a remodeling year after Charlie Huff left for Southern Miss, leaving the Herd with an FBS worst 27% return of production. New head coach Tony Gibson may “want to be” in Huntington, but he’s in for a rough first year.

Coastal Carolina under Tim Beck still has ALL SBC Team talent in (OL) Nick Del Grande and (LB) Shane Bruce, but the Chants seem to be the kind of team that allows one grim loss to upend the entire season. Last year, after winning four of its first five, a 39-7 loss to James Madison put the Chanticleers in such a funk that they only won two more games the rest of the season. Have the Chants gotten any better? An influx of 33+ transfers will help, especially at DL where Eric Taylor (SMU) and Obinna Onwuka (West Virginia ) will bring some skills to the trenches.

Is It Really Just James Madison and Georgia Southern?

The Reader’s Digest Version of this answer? Yes. Lots has to do with experience at quarterback, with both the Dukes (Alonza Barnett) and the Eagles (JC French) bringing back accomplished signal callers. Georgia Southern under Clay Helton brings a surprisingly stout defense to the gridiron this season, with a conference best three All SBC First Defenders on the roster: (LB) Brendan Harrington, (DL) Latrell Bullard and (DB) Chance Gamble. So long as a healthy and fit French delivers touchdowns, the Eagles should have a defense that prevents attritional shootouts.

Meanwhile, James Madison is going to grind opponents with the run game, tasking SBC First Team RB George Pettaway to dart through holes created by SBC First Team OL Pat McMurtrie. It’ll be tougher to toss on the Dukes too, with DBs DJ Barksdale and Jacob Thomas prowling the backfield. Both teams are just well-balanced football programs. But if Barnett is truly healthy (there seems to be some question), then look for head coach Bob Chesney to be toughest to beat in a hard to beat conference.

The Big Analysis

I have no idea who wins the West or the East.

Ten Solid Out of Conference Games for the Sun Belt

Mississippi State versus Southern Miss, August 30

Old Dominion verus Indiana, August 30

Arkansas State versus Arkansas, September 6

ULM verus Alabama, September 6

Iowa State versus Arkansas State, September 13

South Alabama versus Auburn, September 13

Georgia State versus Vanderbilt, September 20

Appalachian State versus Boise State, September 27

Oregon State versus Appalachian State, October 4

Washington State at James Madison, November 26

If the Sun Belt is the Best Group Of 5 Team, Then Why Was the Sun Belt Shut Out of the Preseason USA Today Coaches Poll?

Preseason polls are ass, but still, it would be nice if the people paying lip service to the Sun Belt would at least put up a vote for the conference. I wrote about this mysterious lack of respect last year.

Louisiana Tech Enters the Sun Belt Next Year (or maybe the year after, nobody really knows)

When the Sun Belt announced that Louisiana Tech would be added to the Sun Belt, it was stated that the Bulldogs would become members “no later than July of 2027” Say what? While most expect final business between Conference USA and Louisiana Tech to conclude in time for the Bulldogs to join the SBC in 2026, there is a possibility that some negotiation shenanigans could delay the entry. Commissioner Keith Gill dismissed this low simmering drama as gamesmanship between CUSA, Louisiana Tech and the Sun Belt.

Meanwhile, Sun Belt coaches attending SBC Media Days had only compliments for Louisiana Tech and the new deal with the conference. Mostly, coaches were far more concerned with 2025 opponents.

Bobcats Farewell Tour

Have you ever served a two weeks notice at a job you’re leaving? It’s a little awkward! Co-workers are congratulating your move while privately grumbling over the inconvenience of your departure. Your boss doesn’t want to talk to you. The break room suddenly empties when you darken the door. You feel lonely.

Don’t expect Texas State to receive much love on its farewell tour of the Sun Belt. Commissioner Gill and the coaches attending SBC Media Days were all complimentary of Texas State’s contributions to the conference and wished the program well in the Pretend 12. However, the conference may have passive-aggressively excluded the Bobcats from the All Sun Belt Preseason teams, and fans aren’t likely to offer a standing ovation. The Bobcats visit Arkansas State, Marshall, Louisiana, and Southern Miss this season.

Who’s Covering The Sun Belt This Year?

Coverage of the Sun Belt is better than ever. Naturally, we’re partial of FunBelt Podcast, who records twice a week during football season.

FunBelt Podcast (with Jeremy Harper, Dusty Thibodeaux and Shane Metlen)

Sun Belt Syndicate

Locked on Sun Belt (with Dave Schultz)

IMAGE: AI monstrosity and a few shots provided by SBC Media.