Famously, at least in certain circles, the Warhawks have not defeated the Red Wolves on the gridiron since 2009, but this year is as good as any for ULM to break that curse. After all, Arkansas State is 1-3 with its most recent loss to Kennesaw State, a game that saw the recently-elevated-to-FBS Owls score three touchdowns on three consecutive possessions in the first quarter. The Warhawks, on the other hand, are 2-1, its latest victory an outlasting of UTEP in beautiful El Paso. Momentum sides with coach Bryant Vincent and ULM.

Momentum isn’t everything, tho. The Warhawks are not without faults. For example, the ULM defense surrendered more than 400 passing yards to the Miner’s quarterback Malachi Nelson. They also lost 73-0 to Alabama, and they didn’t look particularly dangerous against their opening opponent St. Francis. Furthermore, ULM quarterback Aidan Armenta has thrown for 259 yards on the season. That’s about 86 yards per contest, for those of you without a calculator.

What ULM has going for it is that it faces an opponent with plenty of faults of its own. Arkansas State ranks 131st in total defense, dead last in the Sun Belt were it not for Georgia State ranking 132. The defense has allowed nine first quarter touchdowns in four games. Offensively, the Red Wolves aren’t much better: 86th. Starting quarterback Jaylen Raynor, the most experienced SBC signal caller, ranks a ho-hum 6th in the Sun Belt for QB efficiency, and the team ranks 12th in rushing.

Rice Bowl Rivalry

It always seems to surprise people to learn that Arkansas is the largest rice-producing state in the U.S., accounting for nearly half of the nation’s total production. Much of the agriculture-research conducted at Arkansas State is centered on rice and maintaining its sustainability. In regards to rice, Louisiana is no slouch, ranking third in the U.S. for production. The game between ULM and Arkansas State is being held in partnership with USA Rice to celebrate the tradition of rice farming in the region, though in years past this was a matchup set between Arkansas State and McNeese.

When known as “The Indians,” Arkansas State had an officially monikered rivalry with the Warhawks known as “The Trail of Tears,” which vanished after somebody finally connected the dots between the actual Trail of Tears and the mass displacement, starvation and death it created. By contrast, most people like rice. a major source of nourishment for about 3.5 billion people worldwide.

How Can Arkansas State Extend the Warhawks’ Misery?

Perhaps start with watching some opposition game film? The Red Wolves seem taken completely by surprise by its opponents, surrendering so many game opening scores that by the time the team adjusts, it’s too late.

Head coach Butch Jones points out that the team has more than 70 new members on the roster, and it takes time mold them into a cohesive unit. Fair enough, but we’re four games deep into the season, and the Red Wolves defense is still making head-scratching mistakes. Fortunately, the Red Wolves defense will be facing a Warhawks offense that ranks third to last nationally in passing (one point ahead of Louisiana, who ranks one point ahead of Rice, who defeated Louisiana, oh my God).

That means the Red Wolves will have to stop junior running back Braylon McReynolds and the ULM run offense. Armenta may not be prolific with the pass thus far, but he accompanies McReynolds as a run threat, joining running QB Hunter Herring as ULM signal callers with legit wheels. Last week, Kennesaw State quarterback Amari Odom ran for 101 yards on the Red Wolves. Don’t expected Coach Bryan Vincent to overlook that.

Offensively, the Red Wolves still have problems to remedy. Before Saturday’s disaster with Kennesaw State, Arkansas State ranked first in the Sun Belt for converting third downs. Against the Owls, Raynor & Friends converted just four of 15 third-down opportunities with runners finding themselves met and overmatched at the line of scrimmage. UTEP performed miserably against the Warhawks run, averaging just 1.2 yards per attempt.

However, you can throw the ball against ULM (its last two opponents have thrown for 372 and 409 respectively), and few and any wide receiver has enjoyed as more success against the Warhawks than Corey Rucker. I’ve been beseeching the Red Wolves offense to get Rucker more active, and this very well could be the game that awakens the super-senior from his bizarre and agonizing slumber.

How Do the Warhawks Break the Curse?

ULM would do well to follow the template established by Red Wolves’ opponents and play aggressive early. While Arkansas State has given up an alarming number of scores in the first quarter, the team generally settles in for the remaining three quarters.

If the Warhawks have speed at running back, Coach Vincent would do well to test the Red Wolves edges. If stud wide receiver Brandon Buckhaulter is healthy (a big if), the Warhawks could trying surprising the Red Wolves defense with some air competency between he and Armenta. The surest way to defeat A-State on Saturday (and defeat the curse) is to tighten up the pass defense. Senior defensive back D’Arco Perkins-McAllister and his partner senior DB Jyren Ester could very well be the two most import guys on the field for ULM on Saturday.

The Final Analysis

Often, games between the Warhawks and Red Wolves are an offensively heavy affair with nary a dull moment. I’ll be surprised if either teams scores north of 28 points on Saturday, as neither offense is particularly effusive – even if both defenses are prone to giving up big quarters. Emotions will likely be high for ULM, and desperation will be paramount for Arkansas State. Which force is stronger?

IMAGE: AI Monstrosity