Game analysis, broadcast, kick-off times, and odds for every Sun Belt football game

It’s that time of year when BYEs kick in and the conference schedule begins to take over. That’s good news for you: it truncates these columns for minimum insufferability. Huzzah.

Entering Week 6, we find ourselves with enough data to make some reasonable determinations about the Sun Belt. For example, Old Dominion behind the prolific Colton Joseph is pretty good. Coastal Carolina and Louisiana, despite recent victories, are alarmingly bad. Texas State and JMU look sharp. Arkansas State and Georgia Southern look terrible. Teams like Appalachian State and ULM may be too early to call.

Not even halfway into the season, there are some teams thinking this is their year, and some already looking ahead to the next. That’s fun, right?

For the entire Sun Belt football season, Sun Belt Heat will be dissected on the FunBelt Podcast each week on the segment “Second and Short.”

Saturday, October 4

ULM Warhawks (3-1) @ Northwestern (2-2), 2:30PM, BIG10 Network, +11.5 Hawks

After a slow offensive start that had Aiden Armenta throwing an opening possession pick-6, the Warhawks ground the Red Wolves offense into sad submission on Saturday to secure a 28-16 win, thanks in no small part to the running abilities of Zach Palmer-Smith and Braylon McReynolds. Now head coach Bryant Vincent travels to Chicago to face the Wildcats, a Big 10 team who already has a Group of Five loss to to Tulane. Northwestern is a middling 94th against the run, which is something Coach Vincent has likely already noted.

RESULT: It’s time to stop considering the Warhawks an insta-win, and nothing would make Vincent more attractive to, say, Virginia Tech than a win over Northwestern.

Oregon State Beavers (0-5) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-2), 2:30PM, ESPN+, -1.5 Mountaineers

That mighty Appalachian State is just a 1.5 point favorite to the 0-5 Beavers at home is testimony to how shaky things are in Boone. Appalachian State is coming off a bitter conference loss to Southern Miss followed by a disappointing thumping at Boise State, the latter seeing quarterback AJ Swann struggling with a pair of pick sixes and only 64 passing yards. New head coach Dowell “Danger Zone” Loggains doesn’t need to panic. Perhaps all the Mountaineers need is some cool Appalachian air, a puff from a corncob pipe, and Oregon State’s 110th ranked defense to jumpstart scoring.

RESULT: Beavers have a habit of playing competent football for limited periods of time, especially against Houston last week. Still, nobody just walks into Boone.

James Madison Dukes (3-1) @ Georgia State Panthers (1-3), 2:30PM, ESPN+, -19.5 Dukes

Every year, the Panthers have one good upset in them, so why not one against the Dukes, a team that quietly and soundly dispatched Georgia Southern last week, who was expected to stand between JMU and a SBC East title? The reason the Panthers won’t upset James Madison is that Georgia State is a mess, ranking next to last in the Sun Belt for scoring and ranking dead last for points allowed. Meanwhile, James Madison has settled behind Alonza Barnett and are allowing its devastating run game to carry most of the load.

RESULT: Weird things happen in Atlanta, but James Madison seems like a team immune to weird things.

Texas State Bobcats (3-1) @ Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-4), 3:00PM, ESPNU, -13.5 Bobcats

The Bobcats first visit to a Sun Belt foe on its going away tour is to Jonesboro, where they were last trounced 77-31 in 2023. It’s not 2023 anymore. Brad Jackson is one of the conference’s most efficient quarterbacks, already connecting with Beau Sparks for five touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves followed up a miserable loss to Kennesaw State with a befuddling defeat to ULM, where Jaylen Raynor & Company managed zero offensive touchdowns. That kind of production won’t likely work against Texas State, who scores a shit ton of points while surrendering minimal scorses.

RESULT: Arkansas State does not appear to be up for this challenge

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (2-2) @ Old Dominion Monarchs (3-1), 5PM, ESPN +, -18.5 Monarchs

It’s easy to point to Colton Joseph’s 12 total touchdowns, 900 yards passing and 367 yards rushing and think all of the Monarchs’ success is because of him. But Old Dominion’s defense has been equally has devastating, joining JMU in limiting opponents to just 16 points a contest. Meanwhile, the Chants surprised South Alabama with a 36-20 upset after getting completely shutout by non-con rival East Carolina. Quarterback Tad Hudson, who has struggled, tallied three total touchdowns in the victory, indicating that maybe the Chants aren’t as beak-less as we were beginning to think.

RESULT: A weird thing for the weirdest ream in the Sun Belt to do would be to lose to the Chants

South Alabama Jaguars (1-4) @ Troy Trojans (2-2), 6PM, ESPN+, -2.5 Troy

Battle of the Belt! Neither team is dropping the hammer on its opponents, but winning this in-state rivalry could go a long way to setting the tone for the rest of the season. Despite some better-than-solid work from quarterback Bishop Davenport, the Jags have lost four straight and never really competed last week against the Mean Green. Meanwhile, Troy is coming of a bye and a win over Buffalo. Losing Goose Crowder hasn’t been easy for Troy, but Tucker Kilcrease did total a pair of touchdowns in the win over the Bulls. Perhaps a settling Kilcrease and some Trojan fire is enough for head coach Gerad Parker to orchestrate a victory.

RESULT: Jaguars is a better team and will still somehow lose the Belt to Troy

IMAGE: AI monstrosity