Noted American skeptic William Poundstone once said “Use ‘entropy’ and you can never lose a debate – because no one really knows what ‘entropy’ is.” That totally scans, Bill! When I am at a loss for how to explain the Sun Belt, I lazily attribute it to “entropy” and go about my merry way. After all, how does one explain Southern Miss losing at home to a Texas State team that 1) hadn’t won a conference game all season, and 2) was missing half a dozen contributors due to suspension? Entropy! How to you square Coastal Carolina’s inability to close out Georgia Southern in a game in which the division title was on the line? Entropy! Why can’t ULM score more than 14 points? What the heck happened to TJ Finley? Why does Bob Chesney look like he shops for sunglasses at Kum & Go? Entropy!
Finally, why are the Cajuns struggling so mightily this year? Actually, this can be explained by common science. In the preseason, Coach Mike Desormeaux and his Ragin Cajuns were picked to finish first in the Sun Belt East, and frankly I was skeptical from the beginning. After all, nothing robs the Sun Belt of its treasures like success, and the Cajuns were no exception. After winning the SBC West in 2024, the portal door swung wide and many Cajuns departed for bigger bags – useful guys like (CB) Caleb Anderson, (CB) Justin Agu and (LB) Carmycah Glass. Ben Wooldrige, Louisiana’s durable quarterback, graduated to the New England Patriots, leaving a big question mark behind center. So when Louisiana lost six of its first eight games, I didn’t credit entropy. The writing was plainly legible on the wall.
However, regarding the outcomes of the Cajuns’ last two games, entropy has played a roll, manifesting itself in the human form of quarterback Lunch Winfield. After losing Walker Howard to injury and experimenting with freshman Daniel Beale, Winfield has emerged from chaos as the certified Cajuns starter, using his fleet feet to accumulate more than 500 rushing yards and seven end zone punches on the season. As Winfield improves, the scoring increases, which isn’t entropy, but it is entertaining, at least from Louisiana’s perspective.
A Bur in Butch’s Boot
Since coach Butch Jones took the reins of the Arkansas State football program, the Red Wolves are 1-3 against the Cajuns, which includes last year’s 55-19 noggin thump. Of all Sun Belt opponents, Red Wolves fans savor the defeat of Louisiana most, making Jones’ lack of success against this ancient foe a prickly bone of contention.
Last year’s Cajuns are not this year’s Cajuns. in 2024, Dre Washington ran for 123 yards and two touchdowns. These days, Washington awaits playing time with Alabama. Linebacker K.C. Ossai led all players with 11 touchdowns. Ossai is now rostered with the Texans. We mentioned Wooldridge, who threw for 260 yards and a TD. Today’s Cajuns have spent the season trying out quarterbacks and filling roles once manned by experienced and accomplished football players.
The Cajuns Punched Themselves Out
A post-game brouhaha between the Louisiana and Texas State Bobcats resulted in a big stack of suspensions, including seven Cajuns. Among the seven, four are listed as safeties, including Courtline Flowers (34 tackles and two interceptions), Collin Jacob (22 tackles and an interception) and preseason All-Sun Belt selection Tyree Skipper (22 tackles, one interception). Louisiana’s pass defense was among the team’s more consistent strengths, limiting teams to just 217 yards per game.
“We’ll be going in a little shorthanded,” understated Coach Desormeaux.
Red Wolves Defense Carries Too Much of the Load
In the loss to Southern Miss, the Red Wolves offense was held scoreless in the second and third quarters, leaving the defense to keep the score tight. At a glance, the Red Wolves offense measured well: 456 yards and 9/15 third down conversions. But six turnovers, including four picks thrown by quarterback Jaylen Raynor, was impossible to overcome. In fact, the game started with a turnover (fumble by Chauncey Cobb on a predictably disastrous lateral) and ended with a turn over (end zone pick).
The Red Wolves offense has overworked the defense all year with about half of the team’s games being decided by a single score. Defensive coordinator Grill McCarley has gone from zero to hero since turning the defense around after the loss to ULM. But this is a defense that could use an assist from an offense that had trouble closing out drives.
Stealing Lunch’s Lunch
Lunch Winfield (real name D’Wanye’, which is just as awesome) was a high school star in Louisiana who as a high school senior accounted for 4,657 yards and 70 touchdowns. As a Cajun freshman and redshirt freshman, he cooled his heels behind Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldrige, and he was expected to continue cooling with the arrival of LSU transfer Walker Howard.
But an injury to Howard coupled by ineffectiveness from 3-star freshman Daniel Beale put Lunch on the table, and now the Cajuns’ offensive bears the benefit of a running quarterback who can, when called upon, throw a pill. “The quarterback (Winfield) is playing at a really high level,” conceded Coach Jones during the Sun Belt weekly presser.
However, passing is where Winfield sometimes has trouble. In the win against Texas State, he throw a pair of picks. In the five games Winfield has started, he’s thrown six interceptions. He is much more comfortable running the ball, where he’s already enjoyed two 100+ rush yards games. Arkansas State defensive backs will hungry for Lunch to throw.
It’s a Big Thursday Night
Last week, Arkansas State announced that ESPN (who is airing the game on its flagship station) would also be broadcasting SportsCenter from campus, which proves there is a first time for everything. Celebrity presence only augments the stakes for the Red Wolves, who are still in the hunt for the SBC West division and are one win from bowl eligibility. Additionally, it’s Senior Night at Centennial Bank Stadium, which means we’ll be saying sad goodbyes to a pile of guys.
How Can Arkansas State Impress the ESPN Audience with a Glorious Victory?
How about some offense? The Cajuns spent the first half of the year tinkering behind center while its defense took a pounding. Even with a full cupboard of safeties, the Cajuns rank an uncharacteristic 104th in total defense. The defense is especially vulnerable to the run, giving up nearly 200 yards per game. Gone are the days when Louisiana stifled the line of scrimmage with suffocating linebacker play. The conditions appear to be perfect for an offensive explosion from the Red Wolves.
That said, the key to victory will once again land at the cleated feet of the Red Wolves defense. Lately, DC McCarley has played more aggressively on the line of scrimmage, deploying his defensive ends to menace the quarterback. The offensive line will give up sacks (Troy dumped Winfield four times), and the Red Wolves will need to rely on its linebackers to keep Winfield honest and allow Demarcus Hendricks, Ethan Hassler, and Bryan Whitehead to do their good work.
While Winfield is a focal point, the Cajuns have running backs who can inflict pain. Zylan Perry and Bill Smith have combined for more than 1100 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns. Historically, the Ragin Cajun run game has outmuscled Arkansas State by grinding out yards, converting on third and fourth, and maintaining possession. Winfield had found some comfort with 6’4″ sophomore wide receiver Shelton Sampson Jr., but look for the Cajuns to dial up the run when rubber meets the pavement.
Game Time Availability
The Threads
The Final Analysis
The Cajuns are playing spicy. At 4-6, Louisiana is fighting for bowl eligibility. Also, a win could put the Cajuns ahead of A-State in the SBC West standings, a situation that would be symbolically painful for the Red Wolves. This is a team that projects danger.
However, the Red Wolves are propelled by their own urgencies. As mentioned, bowl eligibility is in play, as is the SBC West title. Butch Jones has made Centennial Bank Stadium a winning venue for his tenure, and that this game will represent the last home field appearance for A-State stalwarts like Corey Rucker, Kyle Taylor, Ethan Hassler, Noah Smith and possibly 20 more seniors makes the victory a must for Coach Jones. Look for the Red Wolves to create their own energy Thursday night – in addition to the energy we fans will generate.
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