The hyper-parity in Sun Belt men’s basketball is entropy throbbing in its most ludicrous form. Six teams tied for second place, all bearing (not really) identical 11-7 conference records. Thanks to a bevy of missed opportunities, the Arkansas State Red Wolves are rated the worst of these six teams, despite boasting the second-most total wins in the conference (tied with South Alabama). Dropping that home game to the Jaguars late in the season proved costly for first year coach Ryan Pannone.

Buried into the seventh seed, the Red Wolves will open its end of the tournament by either playing ULM (which A-State trounced twice), Old Dominion (to whom A-State lost 75-71) or Georgia Southern (Red Wolves won on the road 85-68). Should Arkansas State prevail, the Red Wolves get South Alabama, who takes special pride in making A-State miserable.

The strange gods who govern the Sun Belt displayed some humor by matching ULM against Old Dominion to start the tournament – the Warhawks’ lone conference victory came at the expense of ODU. Meanwhile, last year’s champion, James Madison, finds themselves playing on Day 2, an inglorious 8th seed getting the winner of Louisiana or Georgia State, the former having defeated the Dukes earlier int he season.

Somehow, Texas State retains the 5th seed and Coastal gets the 3rd (Arkansas State booked a 3-0 record against the Bobcats and Chants) while Marshall and Troy sit in the Emperors’ luxury booth, eating grapes and watching the gladiators slaughter one another on the hardwood. If there is a more brutal conference tournament format in existence, please reveal yourself.

Who will win this shocking display of bloodletting? The Trojans and Herd aren’t complaining about avoiding the gauntlet, though secretly both teams have to be at least inwardly concerned about such a long layover between games. I’m tempted to give #4 Appalachian State and #3 Coastal Carolina an edge, as either could be arriving to the semi-finals suitably stretched and warmed.

However, #5 Texas State and #6 South Alabama may be the more serious contenders, particularly the Bobcats, who have won eight of their last nine. But will that heat transfer to Pensacola? I like to see who plays best on the road when attempting to make tournament predictions. Of the fourteen teams in play, only Troy, Coastal, South Alabama and Arkansas State have winning road records. Texas State (3-9) and Southern Miss (4-11) are particularly weak away from home.

Ultimately, this is Troy’s tournament to lose. But the Trojans aren’t unbeatable. Look for Appalachian State and Texas State to present a serious challenge. Honestly, anyone can win this tournament. Except ULM.

The Women’s SBC Tournament is Heavy with Contenders

The Sun Belt features five legit-good women’s basketball programs, all of whom bear sub-100 NET rankings: James Madison (48), Georgia Southern (69), Troy (78), Arkansas State (88) and Marshall (97). The likelihood of seeing two Sun Belt teams in the NCAA Tournament isn’t impossible, just unlikely (Somebody has to sacrifice so the SEC can live). But we can dream.

The “bottom of the arrow” is considerably weaker, but offers some fascination. ULM has played well despite it’s 10th seed, and Southern Miss isn’t without its dangers, among them Jakayla Johnson.

Who plays well on the road? Six teams boast winning records away from home: Georgia Southern, Troy, Arkansas State, James Madison, Marshall and Old Dominion. In our opinion, Troy is positioned well to win this tournament, complimenting solid shooting with exceptional rebounding. James Madison isn’t as deep as recent teams, but still has good size. When the threes fall, the Red Wolves are unstoppable. But any of the top five have a solid shot at winning.

IMAGE: AI Monstrosity Transmogrified from the Sun Belt