Observing Sun Belt Entropy: Everything That Surprises Us About the 2026 Season (So Far)

That’s why we play the game. Turns out, reality is a better prognosticator of reality than conjecture. Even in a world where artificial intelligence can crunch and interpret infinite data, mankind is still at the mercy of coincidence, chance and cosmic chaos. The great philosopher Dennis Green once declared “They are who we thought they were!” but honestly, nobody knows anything. We are an unpredictable species. The same minds that cracked the atom also gave us Love Island. We are but puppets pulled by the strings of quantum entanglements, but those strings are infinite.

For example, I began the college football season firmly in the belief that South Alabama’s Bishop Davenport would prove himself the best quarterback in the Sun Belt. He had the experience. He had shown promise. But when an injury temporarily derailed him in Week Two, he found himself replaced by his understudy Jared Hollins. Who could have foreseen this? They would have poisoned, stabbed, and shot Rasputin for suggesting such a thing. But here we are, crowned subjects of King Entropy.

Old Dominion Needs a New Dominion

At season’s start, I felt that Rickey Rahne’s Monarchs was the team best positioned to not only rule the Sun Belt East, but to win the Sun Belt outright. Six weeks in, ODU is 1-4 and already 0-2 in conference, suffering catastrophic losses to James Madison and Georgia State (whom we shall visit momentarily). QB Quinn Hienicle just hasn’t provided the same spark as his predecessor Colton Joseph, and the scoring defense is atrocious, or at least it has been to Old Dominion standards.

Georgia State is…Good?

We won’t know just how good the Panthers are until the conclusion of this week’s contest with James Madison, but damn! At 4-1, Georgia State has put the Sun Belt on notice and confirmed that maybe Dell McGee was ready for the captain’s chair after all. Quarterback Cameran Brown has been excellent, and the Panthers defense has been the conference’s best against the pass (and 6th against the run). It was an ugly first two years for Coach McGee in Atlanta, but now everything is snapping into place.

South Alabama’s O Might Make Up for Its D

The Jaguars’ defensive shortcomings became worse with injuries as the season got started, but offensively, head coach Major Applewhite is fielding the conference’s fourth most prolific squad. Running back Keenan Phillips has provided a reliable presence in the ground game while the receiving combo of Brendan Jenkins and Anthony Eager has generated seven touchdown catches between them. The flip side: South Alabama ranks 10th in the SBC for points allowed. ULM, not known for football, put 35 on South Bama in Mobile. Does Applewhite have enough offensive firepower to win the SBC West?

James Madison Will Likely Not Finish 4th in the SBC East

Yes, yes I boldly predicted that the talent drain created by Bob Chesney and the unfamiliarity of new head coach Billy Napier would result in a dip in wins at Harrisonburg. So far, Napier has only gone 5-0 and made it look easy, already burying preseason SBC East contenders like Marshall and Old Dominion. Despite some flipping at QB, JMU is sporting the conference’s best offense in addition to the conference’s best defense. Business as usual with Jimmy Mads.

Louisiana Tech Is Not Food

Somehow, it’s Week 6, the Bulldogs have already enjoyed a bye, and they’re the only team in the Sun Belt West untested by conference play. That changes this week when LaTech takes on Louisiana, who has notched four gritty victories. The Bulldogs are a strange unknown, presumably grown soft after spending a generation in the CUSA, but coach Sonny Cumbie’s guys defeated Army with backup QB Trey Kukuk throwing for less than 200 yards and no touchdowns. LaTech is not a team to be trifled with.