It’s not widely remembered, but in 2012 Middle Tennessee was thought to be a program on the rise, notably in basketball but also with recent football success. On November 29th of that year, the Blue Raiders and Florida Atlantic announced that they would be picking up their football (and various other balls) and relocating to CUSA. Middle’s president, Sidney McPhee, said C-USA offered “television partnerships, increased bowl tie-ins and larger national footprint” The program’s athletic director, Chris Massaro, said he “long admired Conference USA as the next, logical step in our program’s evolution.” Arkansas State responded to the defection on December 1 by trouncing Middle Tennessee 45-0, with the Blue Raiders never crossing the 50 yard line.

Today, most people would smirk at the thought of CUSA providing any program with “a larger national footprint” let alone the logical step” in a university’s evolution. But when Middle Tennessee left (along with North Texas, FIU and others), a kind of dark FOMO set it. Feet began to itch. When Western Kentucky left, remaining members hadn’t the access to an adequate supply of Tums to treat the indigestion.

The Sun Belt survived. In fact, after some struggle and missteps, it only grew stronger by adding the most promising FCS minions to the fold like Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Texas State and James Madison. Thanks to the exposure and resources afforded by the conference, all four of those programs thrived in the FBS, with three of the four taking conference titles and James Madison receiving a berth in the College Football Playoffs. “The Sun Belt,” commissioner Keith Gill enjoyed saying, “has never been stronger.”

Losing Texas State seemed fair. The Bobcats manned the Sun Belt’s western frontier, and it was a lonely post. An opportunity to join the Not Quite PAC 12 seemed, at worst, a lateral move – but with the opportunity to play a set of rivals that made some sense. Texas State system president Kelly Damphouse framed the move more grandiosely: “Joining the Pac-12 is more than an athletic move; it is a declaration of our rising national profile, our commitment to excellence, and our readiness to compete and collaborate with some of the most respected institutions in the country.” When he have the opportunity to play Utah State on the regular, you take it.

Meanwhile, when James Madison entered the conference, athletic director Jeff Bourne recognized the value. “The Sun Belt, and particularly the East Division, offers a natural opportunity to build rivalries within a geographic footprint.” he said. Unlike Texas State, the Dukes started their Sun Belt era strong, finishing with the best Sun Belt East record three out of four seasons. In men’s basketball, the Dukes won a title (2024). Something about these successes began to turn screws in the minds of James Madison.

Often, fan bases from successful Sun Belt programs generally begin conference-shopping right away. No use denying it. Arkansas State isn’t immune, having thrown in its hat during the BIG12 recruiting fiasco. For various reasons, the American has become the bail-to conference, supplanting CUSA.

Once upon a time, the American was what Mike Aresco shamelessly dubbed “The Power 6,” backing his claim by pointing to the success of programs like UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and Memphis. While this kind of promotion elicited sneers from the very conferences Aresco hoped to impress, it did seem to leave a mark on Sun Belt programs looking for a change of scenery. However, it wasn’t until James Madison until the American extended an invite.

JMU began its relationship with the Sun Belt on rocky soil. Because JMU was moving from FCS to FBS, it was subject to the NCAA’s mandatory two-year reclassification period. During that transition, the football program was ineligible for normal FBS postseason competition. The Sun Belt’s rules tied eligibility for its football championship game to postseason/bowl eligibility, so JMU could not play for the league title in either 2022 or 2023. Some within the James Madison orbit found that irritating, including head football coach Curt Cignetti who said “I’m a firm believer that common sense overrides all the rules.”

Most viewed this as newbie whining, but JMU had a valid gripe: Georgia Southern had literally won a Sun Belt title while under the same type of FCS-to-FBS postseason restriction that kept JMU out of the championship game. The Sun Belt would place a big enough chip on Cignetti’s shoulder that the Dukes’ fanbase could share. Cignetti would never win a Sun Belt title, leaving for Indiana before getting the chance.

Many fans outside of Harrisonburg’s orbit saw this simply as the Dukes paying their bones. JMU would begin to see this bureaucracy as a hindrance to their financial growth and a determent to their brand, for which they were investing heavily. In 2025, JMU reported $78.64 million in total athletic expenses, compared with a Sun Belt median of $46.10 million. That means JMU was spending roughly 71% more than the median Sun Belt athletic department. Much of that funding comes from high student fees – JMU’s student-fee revenue is also roughly 6.4 times the Sun Belt median.

To get a grasp on this, understand that Arkansas State collects about $8M from student fees. James Madison is collecting $55M. One shudders to think what the reaction might be if A-State’s administration raised student fees by 588%. Red Wolves fans are still angry to pay for parking.

James Madison has not collected this fee without criticism. It stands to reason that James Madison would seek alternative revenue streams. Additionally, Dukes fans began to vibe off their program’s popularity. James Madison had appeared in the Men’s and Women’s NCAA basketball tournament and received the massive exposure of playing Oregon in the football playoffs. Head coaches Cignetti and and Bob Chesney left for a high profile conference – perhaps the entire program should do the same?

The American Welcomes the Dukes

“The American is home to member institutions who share our ambitious academic goals and our unwavering commitment to student success,” declared JMU president James Schmidt. Sure! JMU athletic director Matt Roan put it another way: “Today’s announcement is the next step in our strategic elevation.”

Whether you subscribe to “strategic elevation” or “ambitious academic goals,” the true motivator behind James Madison’s move to the American is cash – specifically revenue provided by the American’s broadcast deal with ESPN. The American’s ESPN deal, which expires in 2032, is materially richer and guarantees more national linear exposure than the Sun Belt’s.

But consider the make-up of the American when this broadcast deal was signed in 2020: since the contract’s signing, UCONN, SMU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston have left the conference. The replacements hardly bear the same pedigree: UAB, Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UTSA and Army. This is not the juicy deal it once was. What will the follow-up look like?

Still, James Madison will obtain its lifelong dream of competing directly East Carolina and Charlotte.

American Commissioner Tim Pernetti said, “The American Conference is a destination, and James Madison University represents everything we value and strengthens our membership.” This seems to be a genuine enough statement. James Madison actually does raise the profile of this reduced version of the American. Pernetti pulled the right strings.

Where Does the Sun Belt Go from Here?

“The Sun Belt Conference is RISING, and our best days are ahead,” said Sun Belt Commissioner Gill in a statement regarding JMU’s departure. Sure! What else is Gill gonna say? Losing Texas State was a shrug. Losing James Madison is a punch in the nuts, and it will likely stimulate the atoms of programs within JMU’s east coast orbit.

Pundits and fans will amuse themselves with recommendations. Western Kentucky is a popular choice, but when questioned about the Hilltoppers during Sun Belt media days, Commissioner Gill seemed to imply that Western Kentucky wasn’t really under consideration. This is probably Gill playing some poker, but who knows?

What the Sun Belt desperately needs to avoid is elevating another FCS program. Most, if not all, suitable programs have long been included. The FBS designation is already diluted enough. If the SBC cannot entice a Western Kentucky, a twitchy MAC school, or (God forbid) Liberty, then do away with divisions and keep the conference at thirteen.

IMAGES: various ownership