Can one man – or in the case of this discussion, one 17-year-old – reverse the fortunes of an entire football program? Ask me any other year, and I’d have said “nope.” Football is just one of those games too reliant on capable execution from everyone on the field. But something happens when freshman quarterback Jaylen Raynor is handed the ball. Everybody experiences an elevation in ability. Passes are no longer dropped. Tackles aren’t missed. Running backs exploded through the narrowest gaps and even the band sounds a little more on key.

Oh yeah, and the play behind center becomes more potent, too.

“I just want to help my teammates,” said Raynor during his first collegiate presser, ever humble and wise, even at his very young age. For a man who’s accounted for seven total touchdowns in five quarters of play, he’s a very modest guy. His teammates, however, don’t have to be so low-key.

“This man is the truth,” declared Melique Straker in the post-game interview following the 44-37 win over Southern Miss. The Red Wolves were in desperate need of truth just two games into the season, when Arkansas State was outscored 110-3. But in Week 3, during the first quarter against visiting Stony Brook, it appeared the Red Wolves had found their spark in redshirt freshman quarterback Jaxon Dailey, a highly touted recruit who was popular in the locker room. However, after a quick 17-0 lead, it became evident that Dailey was not finding any kind of rhythm with the passing game. The Seawolves defense stacked the box and held the Red Wolves scoreless until 1:35 left in the third quarter.

However, the moment the Red Wolves evolved occurred about four minutes earlier, when Jaylen Raynor entered the game, spelling starter Dailey. He immediately whipped out a five-yard first down run. A couple plays later, he’d run for 32. Ja’Quez Cross ended the drive with a five-yard touchdown run. Suddenly, Arkansas State had rediscovered offense, and it was so good.

When asked what took so long to insert Raynor into the starting lineup, Coach Butch Jones said in summation, “He’s just 17.”

As Hoped, the Offensive Line Is Much Improved

Last year, a common result of the first drive of possession was “second down and twelve.” Nearly every run up the middle ended behind the line of scrimmage. Pass protection wasn’t much better. Starting QB James Blackman often found himself scrambling for his bones, robbing him of his downplay abilities.

In 2022, only once after Week 2 did Arkansas State post a 50% or better conversion rate on third-down – 9 of 17 in the win over ULM. Alarmingly, the Red Wolves offense would see two games where ZERO third-down attempts were converted. The last five games saw only 8 conversions on third down.

This season, Arkansas State ranks 108th in third down conversion – an improvement from last season’s 124th. But what is most noticeable is that the “second and 12” positions have been significantly reduced, with Red Wolves running backs collecting the hard yards. Part of it can be attributed to Zak Wallace, a bruiser who seems to be hitting gaps harder and harder. Much of it can be credited to Ja’Quez Cross, who in addition to speed bears good vision. But the lion’s share of credit must be given to the newly revamped offensive line.

The pass projection has provided valuable moments for Red Wolves quarterbacks (though the position was slow to take advantage), and the sheer size of the unit has opened lanes for Red Wolves running backs that were previously cemented with defenders. With Raynor able to depopulate the box with his arm, running should come even easier for Cross and Wallace.

The Defense Rises to the Moments of its Choosing

Nobody is confusing Arkansas State’s 123rd ranked defense as a shutdown unit. The defense is still an adventure, prone to giving up time-killing drives and gut-punching third-down conversions. However, many of the best Red Wolves moments this season have occurred when the defense rises to make an important stop or (at least in Week 4) dramatic takeaways.

The first three games relied heavily on the defense to execute the heavy lifts. At the moment, it’s just not that kind of defense. It makes mistakes. It’s thin on the line. It requires a breather. With only limited data to analyze, it appears that the offense may be ready to provide that breather. The outcome of a few minute’s rest was clear against Southern Miss, when late in the game, the Red Wolves defense had the manic energy to prevent the Golden Eagles from moving the ball downfield.

It will be interesting to see how the Red Wolves defense responds moving forward, with injuries mounting and tough conference tests on the horizon.

Let’s Take a Breath

Raynor is going to make mistakes. He’s prone to holding onto the ball for too long. Sometimes he stares down receivers. During the game against Southern Miss, he lowered his shoulder to bowl-over an all-conference safety rather than safely slide. There will be times when mistakes will be costly.

And there will be times when the defense gives up explosive plays. There will be times when the run game gets corked, the corner backs get burned, and odds are good that even Dominic Zvada will doink a chip shot. It’s a young team.

But the growth we wanted to see is finally appearing beneath the lens of the microscope. Let’s see how it unfolds.

IMAGE: Sun Belt and Arkansas State Athletics