During Monday’s SBC press event, a somewhat subdued Coach Butch Jones attempted to explain why the Red Wolves offense managed just three field goals against Texas State, a team the Red Wolves dropped 77 on last year.

“We had four drives of 12 plays or more and then we’re coming away with field goals and we have to have the discipline to execute play in and play out,” said Jones. “What defenses have done is they’ve made us click perfect and we’re not getting enough explosive plays.”

Except, the first play of the game was an explosive play – a 49 yard run from Ja’Quez Cross that put Arkansas State on the Bobcats’ 26 yard line. A-State followed the opening run with a toss to Cross that was stopped at the line of scrimmage, a two yard run from Zak Wallace (who’d finish the game with 15 yards on six attempts), and an incomplete pass to Corey Rucker (6/36). The sequence was carbon copied for the entire second half, with the Red Wolves racing to within striking distance of the goal line only to send out Van Andel to boot the three-pointer.

Something is catastrophically wrong with the Red Wolves offense, and at the season’s midpoint, Coach Jones is running out of real estate to right the ship. Are we witnessing sophomore slumping from a talented quarterback? Are the running backs and wide receivers simply overhyped? Is the offensive line – thought to have finally acquired the depth and experience to provide both a pass and run game – just overmatched?

Or does the problem lie in the offensive game plan, which seems to lose its aggression as the goal line draws closer? For example, down 3-14 near the end of the first quarter, the Red Wolves are moving the ball thanks in no small part to a 21-yard pass completion to the big and speedy Malik Hornsby. First and ten on the Bobcats’ 30, Raynor completes a 5-yard pass to Tyler Little. The next play is a one yard run from Zak Wallace. After a Texas State timeout, the Red Wolves dial up a two yard pass to Corey Rucker, leaving it 4th and 2 on the Texas State 22.

Bear in mind, Texas State had already torched the Red Wolves defense twice for touchdowns. The Bobcats were not slowing down. The Red Wolves, with a hot Cross in the backfield, could have made the attempt to pick up to the two yards. At the very worst, the Red Wolves would be down 11 points with the Bobcats pinned deep int their own territory. Instead, the staff elected to only be down 8 points by bringing out Van Andel again.

“Lot of lessons we learned from Texas State,” said Butch Jones. “We have a short amount of time to learn them.”

You Think The Red Wolves Have Problems?

As frustrating as Arkansas State has been this season, Southern Miss is enduring yet another year of massive losses fueled by an inability to fill the quarterback position. After failing to breech 200 passing yards in any game, Tate Rodemaker, the transfer from Florida State, has been replaced by Ethan Crawford, a 6’0″ sophomore who can run, but has yet to prove a proficiency with passing. Hew was held to just 9 completions for 165 yards against ULM. With only four passing TDS to its name, the Golden Eagles have the fewest in the Belt.

It’s Year Four of the Will Hall era, and at 1-5 this year he’s well on his way to a third losing season in Hattiesburg having just come off a 3-9 season. Only the Warhawks rank worse in the SBC for total offense, and ULM beat the Golden Eagles by 17 points. Defensively, Southern Miss ranks better than Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and (yes) Arkansas State, but the squad is still 110th nationally. No team in the Sun Belt has scored fewer points in the Sun Belt than Southern Miss, and only Appalachian State has surrendered more.

Red Wolves Haven’t Won in Hattiesburg since 1977

According the the ancient scrolls, the first meeting between Arkansas State and Southern Miss occurred in 1960, when the immortal Coach King Block of A-State outsmarted the legendary Coach Thad “Pie” Vann 14-13 in Jonesboro. Since then, the Golden Eagles have won 10 of the last 12, but one of those two losses came last year, when Arkansas State outslugged Southern Miss 44-37.

Red Wolves fans may recall that the game marked Jaylen Raynor’s first as the A-State starter, when he accounted for a total of five touchdowns – three in the air and two on the ground. Arkansas State fans wouldn’t mind seeing that Raynor again. On the opposite end, much of the Golden Eagles offense was produced by running back Frank Gore Jr., who had one punch-in and 132 bruising yards. Gore Jr. now plays for the Buffalo Bills, and the Golden Eagles have yet to see a running back break 100 yards this season.

“As crazy as this may sound, I see progress.”

Butch Jones seemed more upbeat on Tuesday than he did on Monday. He told a gaggle of press that progress was indeed being made. “We just didn’t finish,” he said. “We didn’t finish drives.”

The Red Wolves will have to finish drives to win, even against Southern Miss. More importantly, it will have to improve discipline on defense. “We had 18 missed tackles,” said Butch Jones. “We missed Nate Martey,” he added, referring to the big senior defensive tackle who’s missed some time of late. Jones expects to have Martey available against Southern Miss.

At one point against Texas State, the Red Wolves surrendered four straight touchdown drives to the Bobcats, which is offensive production Arkansas State simply wasn’t prepared to match. It’s not likely the Red Wolves see the same kind of firepower in Hattiesburg, which may be crucial to the defensive squad regaining some of the swagger it at earned at the Jaguars’ expense.

Golden Eagle to Ground: Ethan Crawford, Sophomore, QB

Butch Jones compared Crawford to Gio Lopez of South Alabama – a man who can make plays when necessary on his feet. Coach Rob Harley and the defense did a fine job bottling Lopez a couple weeks ago. Perhaps we’ll see similar schemes used against Crawford.

Perhaps Crawford’s biggest strength is his mystery. Southern Miss has used three quarterbacks this season – sometimes all in one game. Crawford’s first start was in Monroe, against what is surprisingly among the best defenses in college football. While he only completed 35% of his passes, he did tack on 70 yards on a whopping 17 carries. Crawford will be a designed part of the run game.

Red Wolf to Rise: Nate Martey, Senior, Defensive Tackle

Without having to contend with Martey, the Texas State Bobcats ran at will on the Red Wolves last Saturday, racking up 270 yards and 6.6 yards with every attempt. With Martey back on the line, the Red Wolves may see fewer successful keepers from Crawford and may even stop running back Rodrigues Clark from crossing the line of scrimmage.

Red Wolves Kick’n It

Notably, A-State kicker Clune “BOOM” Van Andel has earned two SBC Special Teams Player of the Week honors and has drilled seven three-pointers in his last two games. Soaring slightly beneath the radar is punter Ryan Heicher, who is currently tied for third for most punts inside the 20 (15) and has been named to the Ray Guy Award watchlist. Heicher, a senior bearing the weight of a tight end, has proven himself a valuable weapon.

Is This a Get Well Game for Arkansas State?

Make zero mistake, things are going well in Hattiesburg. That said, the Golden Eagles are not to be trifled with, especially at home. Coach Will Hall will likely stop at nothing to give the guys in the AD’s booth a surprise victory on Homecoming, which means players, staff and fans alike don’t need to take this game for granted.

All those cautionary words said, this could be a “get well” game for the Red Wolves, provided that the team arrive to town with a winning mindset. This could be a game where Raynor tosses multiple touchdowns, Zac Wallace punches in a few scores, and the defense picks up a sack full of sacks. Better yet, this could be the game where the invisible membrane at the opposing goal line vanishes, and everything finally clicks. This could be a rare road win for Butch Jones,

It could even be a win.