Legendary film director Tim Burton once admitted that he couldn’t identify a great script even if it hit him in the face. I have a similar handicap: I cannot identify what makes a good football transfer or recruit, which is one reason why I find myself checking in on 24/7 Sports recruiting and transfer rankings more frequently than what a physician would recommend. I have to put my faith somewhere.

Relying on an evaluation service like 24/7 is an invitation for disappointment and confusion. How many times has your favorite program imported a highly rated player only to see that player yield zero dividends? How many times have we seen a low-rated transfer or recruit become a superstar? There are no guarantees. As my colleague Shane Mettlen observes, the only qualified rankers of talent are coaches and staff.

Still, it’s June, and content remains in demand. Because the transfer portal has become just as (or perhaps even more) essential as high school recruiting, I was compelled to revisit 24/7 Sports and check in on Sun Belt portal poaching, taking a measure of the new faces entering the conference. What I found was a little disconcerting.

For 2025, I identified the highest rated transfer for each Sun Belt team. Amusingly, the highest rated athlete is Josh Moten, a Marshall-to-Southern Miss transfer brought in by Charlie Huff. The second-highest import; Matt Sluka, the semi-famous QB from UNLV, is now making a new home at James Madison.

Player	Pos	Team	Former	24/7 #
Josh Moten	CB	Southern Miss	Marshall	0.92 T
Mathew Sluka	QB	James Madison	UNLV	0.88 T
Branson Robinson	RB	Georgia State	Georgia	0.87 T
Jacob Robinson	S	Coastal Carolina	Emory & Henry	0.86 T
Rashod Dubinion	RB	Appalachian State	Arkansas	0.86 T
Jo’shon Barbie	RB	Marshall	McNeese	0,86 T
Greg Burrell	RB	Texas State	UNLV	0.85 T
Zach Palmer-Smith	RB	ULM	Richmond	0.86 T
Cody Sigler	DL	Arkansas State	W. Alabama	0.86 T
Malik Ellis	TE	Troy	Miss. State	0.86 T
Antonio White Jr.	S	Georgia Southern	Rutgers	0.86 T
Zach Pyron	QB	South Alabama	Minnesota	0.86 T
Shelton Sampson Jr.	WR	Louisiana	LSU	0.86 T
Kollin Collier	S	Old Dominion	TCU	0.84 T

Why am I disconcerted? In 2024, Sun Belt programs reported a total of 20 transfer acquisitions with a transfer rating of 0.8700 or higher. This year, that number is three.

Furthermore, you will find that the ratio of highly rated talented leaving the Sun Belt opposed to the number of highly rated talented joining the Sun Belt is cartoonishly lopsided. It would appear that the prospect of making a bag with well-financed programs is preferred over securing valuable playing time in the Sun Belt. If how the 24/7 ratings are comprised is consistent between 2024 and 2025, you can only conclude that the Sun Belt is being used as a kind of talent incubator that can be robbed without fear of consequence.

Who knows how this all looks next year? It’s hard to foresee what effect new legislation enabling direct payments from universities will have on the matrix. There is also the law of diminishing return: perhaps the prospect of earning money to sit the bench (or, conversely, paying money to players sitting the bench) will lose its luster, restoring “playing time” as a program’s most valuable coin.

There are other things to consider. 24/7 Sports uses their own personal assessments to rate players. How scientific is this method? Unknown. But it seems possible that players from G5 teams transferring to P4 programs may get more benefit of the doubt than P4 players moving to the G5. After all, why would an athlete choose to leave a program offering duffle bags of cash for a program that can only provide a fanny pack at best? It must have something to do with his skillsets, right? Conversely, if a G5 player is “moving up” to a P4 program, well, that must mean that the athlete in question has under-appreciated abilities. It would take a super human effort to ignore this bias.

Irregardless of how athletes are rated or what legislation might do to college sports in general, it is obvious that the Sun Belt has to get creative with player retention efforts. A couple years ago, Fun Belt Podcast asked a Western Kentucky administrator how the Hilltoppers managed to keep their athletes in Bowling Green, and the answer was homespun: make athletes feel wanted. If the athlete feels valued, the athlete is more likely to stay for less NIL than what is offered. Perhaps the Sun Belt can come together and formulate a comprehensive appreciation plan.

It would also be helpful if the NCAA cracked down on player tampering. It’s not a big secret that tampering happens without any speed bumps; Nick Saban admits it every year during the NFL draft. Lately, we’ve seen P4 coaches grouse about this breech of protocol, so maybe some action will finally be taken.

Of course, the easy answer is more money. As the Sun Belt’s profile grows, it finds itself in better position to negotiate meatier media rights. A deal needs to be struck soon so that SBC programs can fill their coffers before the SEC and BIG10 wipe us all out for good.

Perhaps the financial solution lies in private equity, a prospect Mettlen explores in greater depth. Who couldn’t use a big influx of money? But the purse is not without strings. Do we want a cadre of finance bros dictating Sun Belt sports by its measure against the bottomline? Just like BlueStar Airlines, we may have no choice. Private equity may save the Sun Belt, but to the detriment of non-profit sports and our souls.

In the end, we’re left with accepting whatever fate allows us and following Shane Mettlen’s lead – in coach’s judgement we trust.

IMAGE: and AI monstrosity