Game analysis, broadcast, kick-off times, and odds for every Sun Belt football game

Several years ago, a common school of thought adopted universally by Sun Belt fans was that the season didn’t really begin until the start of conference play – because out-of-conference play was mostly miserably for most Sun Belt teams. Just be thankful that we managed to stagger through the OOC mostly healthy, and that the checks earned by the body-bag games cleared. Really, the season is all about winning the Sun Belt! Right?

When the Sun Belt got stronger, OOC expectations got higher. It was no longer acceptable to lose to an FCS program, and it was no longer a surprise to defeat a power foe. Undergirded by a new sense of moxie, we declared ourselves the best Group of Five conference in all of college football. Life was good.

The Sun Belt is no longer the best Group of Five Six conference in college football. Too much of our talent has transferred to big-bag programs. This year, our performance against power and peer conferences has been abysmal, and all talk of the Sun Belt competing for a Playoff Spot has all but evaporated into the ether.

The real season starts now, right?

For the entire Sun Belt football season, Sun Belt Heat will be dissected on the FunBelt Podcast each week on the segment “Second and Short.”

Saturday, September 27

South Alabama Jaguars (1-3) @ North Texas Mean Green (4-0), 11AM, ESPNU, +12.5 Jags

Of course, after positioning Week 5 as the start of SBC Play, the first game of the week is an out-of-conference donnybrook between South Bama and The Green. Last week, the Jaguars, leading 14-7 at halftime, were punched in the crotch by Coastal Carolina, led by Tad Hudson suddenly emerging from a coma to throw two second-half touchdowns in a 38-20 win. Now Bishop Davenport and the Jaguars get 4-0 North Texas, piloted by Drew Mestemaker, a QB who has already thrown 10 touchdowns on more than 1000 yards of passing.

RESULT: This isn’t the kind of bounce-back opponent coach Major Applewhite was likely hoping for

James Madison Dukes (2-1) @ Georgia Southern Eagles (2-2), 12:30PM, ESPN+, -17.5 Dukes

The Dukes needed a moment to warm up, but Bob Chesney’s bunch got the job done last week against Liberty, with Alonza Barnett tallying three total TDs and taking all the snaps at QB. Meanwhile, Clay Helton’s Eagles have recovered from a disaster-filled west coast road trip to notch wins over Jax State and Maine (though judging by the betting line, neither victory especially impressed Vegas). It’s not easy winning in Statesboro, and while Georgia Southern’s two week win streak isn’t at the expense of top tier opponents, winning can be habit forming. Eagles RB OJ Arnold has three touchdowns on more than 200 yards rushing in his last two games. Dukes have given up big runs this season.

RESULT: Dukes are a better, well-rounded team, but the Eagles will keep it closer than Vegas thinks

Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-3) vs. ULM Warhawks (2-1), 2PM, ESPN+, -.2.5 Warhawks

ULM hasn’t defeated Arkansas State on the gridiron since 2009, when the legendary Trey Revell outgunned the mythical Corey Leonard 16-10 in Monroe. Fifteen years later, will the curse finally be lifted? The Warhawks didn’t look good in a 73-0 loss to Alabama, but ULM and RB Braylon McReynolds bounced back nicely in a convincing 31-25 victory over UTEP. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves are having epic problems on defense, allowing four consecutive first quarter TDs to Arkansas, then two weeks later allowing three consecutive first quarter TDs to Kennesaw State. If the Warhawks capitalize on the Red Wolves’ first quarter woes, ULM may finally be rid of its comically long losing streak to A-State.

RESULT: Until the Red Wolves learn to play defense, I can’t place any confidence in A-State extending the win streak over ULM

Liberty Flames (1-3) @ Old Dominion Monarchs (2-1), 5PM, ESPN+, -16.5 ODU

Jamey Chadwell and the Flames opened the season with a win over Maine and have lost three straight, including last week to James Madison. It won’t get easier for Liberty against the weirdest program in the Sun Belt. In just three games, QB Colton Joeseph already has nine total touchdowns while authoring a beating so heavy upon Virginia Tech that the Hokies felt compelled to shitcan their football coach. Are the Monarchs for real this time? Weirdly enough, I think they might be.

RESULT: Flames receive a double Sun Belt dunking

Jacksonville State Gamecocks (2-2) @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-2), 6PM, ESPN+, Golden Eagles -4.5

Just when head coach Charlie Huff and the Eagles of Gold were feeling good after that upset over Appalachian State, Southern Miss goes ahead a drops a turd against Louisiana Tech 30-20 – despite getting 392 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns from Braylon Braxton. The Gamecocks already have a Sun Belt loss on their resume (Georgia Southern), and are getting next to nothing passing-wise from QB Gavin Wimsatt. However, Jacksonville State ranks 8th nationally with 261.5 rushing yards per game – a challenge to Southern Miss’ 73rd ranked run defense.

RESULT: I’m not sure what to make of the Golden Eagles just yet, but the home field advantage may be enough

Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) @ Boise State Broncos (2-1), 6:30PM, FSI, +15.5 Mountaineers

Before that loss to Southern Miss, it seemed like Coach Dowell “Danger Zone” Loggains was the fix needed to bring Appalachian State back on top. Now quarterback AJ Swann is likely out with a “lower body injury,” leaving either young Noah Gillon or veteran Billy Wiles to take on a Broncos team many assumed in the preseason would be the G5 representative in the College Football Playoffs. Since losing to USF in convincing fashion to open the season, Boise State has applied liberal doses of offense to Air Force and East Washington thanks to massive amounts of rushing yards. Fact Check: Appalachian State defense is pretty good at putting the brakes on the run.

RESULT: Without AJ Swann, it’s a tough ask to demand a win from App State in Idaho.

Marshall Thundering Herd (2-2) @ Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (1-3), 7PM, ESPN+, -1.5 Cajuns

Vegas is giving the Cajuns the “shrug” home field advantage, but injuries are mounting up on coach Mike Desormeaux and Louisiana. In addition to starting quarterback Walker Howard, offensive tackles J’Marion Gooch and George Jackson are said to be done for the season, deepening Cajuns dismay across the bayou. Meanwhile, the Thundering Herd behind new head coach Tony Gibson is sitting at .500 on a two game win streak at the expense of Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Meeting the Cajuns at Lafayette increases the degree of difficulty, but Herd QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is coming off a massive 4-touchdown game – a true test for a Cajuns’ defense that has allowed three passing touchdowns this season.

RESULT: If the Cajuns get something out of freshman quarterback Daniel Beale, Louisiana has a shot.

Taking the Week Off: Georgia State, Troy, Coastal Carolina, Texas State

Image: AI monstrosity