Recently, I picked Arkansas State to finish first in the Sun Belt West – college football’s kill box. Honestly, anybody could wind up winning the West with the exception of Southern Miss, though what the Golden Eagles will lack in victories they’ll make up for in faith, family and fun.

The Red Wolves have a great many metrics to improve if they want to be SBC West champs. Butch Jones sometimes talks about getting “1% better every day” but in some regards, A-State needs to get 100% better now. Let’s examine last year’s performance to identify key “areas of opportunity.”

EXTREME OPPORTUNITY: 110th in Total Defense (2025)

For you non-dorks, Total Defense is the sum of rushing yards and passing yards allowed by a team over a season. The Red Wolves dug themselves into an hole last season by fielding woefully inept defense early in the year. Defensive Coordinator Griff McCarley made adjustments after last year’s demoralizing loss to ULM, transforming the defense into the team’s more reliable units. For comparison’s sake, last year’s SBC West champion, Troy, weighed in at 66th for Total D. The SBC Champ, James Madison: 5th. For the Red Wolves to see success, Coach McCarley must improve this metric significantly.

GOTTA DO BETTER: 72nd in Total Offense (2025)

Total Offense is calculated by adding a player’s or team’s net rushing yards and passing yards together, minus any quarterback sack yardage lost. The Red Wolves were middle-of-the-pack for TO, but let’s be real, much of last year’s frustrations can be traced to Arkansas State’s confounding inability to move the ball, particularly in the red zone (we’ll get into that momentarily). Perhaps the solution lies with new offensive coordinator Garrett Altman, former QB coach for Vanderbilt. However, just to underscore that defense wins championships, Troy’s finished 121st for TO.

THIS WON’T CUT IT: 93rd in Red Zone Offense (2025)

Last year, the Red Wolves seemed to field two different offenses. Between the 20s, A-State moved the ball with confidence and competence. But in the Red Zone, the play calls seemed stale and predictable, relying heavily on conservative decisions and a toss in the corner of end zone when it all fell apart. It will be up to new OC Altman to provide more wrinkles in the playbook, and he has weapons at every offensive skill position to execute his designs.

MUST IMPROVE: 97th in Defensive Third Down Conversions (2025)

Quite frankly, the Sun Belt as a whole didn’t exactly shine within this metric: A-State actually ranked ahead of Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Southern Miss, Louisiana, Appalachian State and ULM. Lots of SBC defensive coordinators have some soul searching to do! Still, when Arkansas State fans are asked to “stand up, it’s third down!” too often we’re slinking dejectedly back into our seats. James Madison ranked sixth in this metric, by the way.

CAN DO BETTER: 74th in Offensive Third Down Conversions (2025)

The Red Wolves actually finished just ahead of Troy in this particular metric, converting on third down about 39% of the time. That’s not terrible, I suppose, until your realize James Madison converted 47%, making them a top 20 crusher of spirits against opposing defenses. By the way, Sam Houston ranked worst for converting third downs, seeing success a mere 22% of the time. How miserable for fans!

MAKE THIS A PRIORITY: 90th in Penalty Yards per Game (2025)

You know who was lousy with accruing penalty yards in 2025? Sun Belt Champion James Madison, who ranked 132nd in the FBS, penalized 72.5 yards per contest. So undisciplined! Meanwhile, Arkansas State averaged 57.85 penalty yards, which isn’t very good, ranking 90th. The Dukes proved that a team can be both sloppy and successful, but James Madison had the offensive firepower to make up for unforced yards. Unless the run game improves, Arkansas State cannot afford a single false start. Speaking of the run game…

WHEN WILL THIS IMPROVE? 109th in Rushing Offense (2025)

You know who was terrible at running the ball last year? Troy! Ranking 128th in the nation, the Trojans mustered an un-Trojan 98 yards per game on the ground. The Red Wolves ground-pounded 123 yards per contest, which is ohhhhh-kay, except every season A-State is expected to make bigger gains in the run game. This season, the Red Wolves feature a pre-season first team ball runner in Kenyon Clay (hopefully healthy) and a seasoned, deep-ish offensive line. Can A-State approach the 241.5-ypg set by James Madison last year? That might be asking too much. How about 150? Can we do that?

Metrics gathered from the NCAA