Every year, I ignore the flashing red lights and convince myself that Arkansas State is poised for a breakout season. This year is no different! I fully expect the Red Wolves to go 12-0 and make a make a legitimate challenge at the National Championship.
That’s not likely to happen, but if the AP can provide a ranking of the Top 25 teams without seeing a single snap of football, I can predict championships for Arkansas State. Them’s the rules.
The Flashing Red Light: Defense
That’s not very fair to 2nd year Defensive Coordinator Griff McCarley, who after a series of misadventures to start 2025, managed to whip the defensive unit into a fairly productive and reliable machine. Still, the Red Wolves finished the year ranked 110th for Total Defense, a metric made more difficult to improve with many contributors aging-out or moving-on. However, after his first year as defensive coordinator, McCarley says he has become better at managing his staff and preparation time, focusing on critical situations such as third down, and designing his defense around what his players actually do well rather than what looks best schematically.
This maturing mindset will likely have a positive effect on a defense with so many new faces and new contributors.
Five New and Newish Guys Who Are Essential to a Good Defensive Start
Joe Drew, Linebacker: Originally a defensive back, Coach Jones saw Drew’s value closer to the line of scrimmage. McCarley and strength coach Director of Athletics Performance Ben Armer went to work. “(Drew has) made a lot of progress,” said McCarley. “He’s another guy that’s put on good weight. Killed it in the weight room. You know, he was 190-something pounds, right? Now up to the 220 area for us because he’s a soldier. He’s a winner.” Much is being placed on Drew’s newly broadened shoulders.
Ryan Reese, Defensive Tackle: Reese saw a solid measure of action in his first year, but in his second year, he’s expected to generate more bone-crushing production for A-State. McCarley struggled to find a big enough word to describe the value of his 272-lb defensive lineman. “Instrumental. Instrumental, monumental, whatever you want to say — big time. Impactful,” he said. Reese and Middle Tennessee transfer Shakai Woods project to be Project Mayhem for Arkansas State.
Five Hamilton, Safety: When you can’t beat them, acquire them! The Red Wolves picked up Hamilton from Kennesaw State, getting a guy who played in all 14 games last year, including six starts for the Conference USA Champion. Hamilton’s gridiron experience will mesh well with what might be the defense’s most experienced unit which includes James Reed III, Brandon Greil and AG McGhee.
Noah Flores, Cornerback: Coach Butch Jones has nothing but warm feelings for Utah State transfer Noah Flores, who was a busy tackler in Logan playing in all twelve games. “He’s come in and not only embraced our culture, but Noah has enhanced our culture,” said Jones. Flores is likely to line up opposite third year CB Kyle Williams, who projects to be a starter for the first time in his A-State career. This is a unit bearing the most unknowns.
Sulton Badmus, Defensive End: Badmus is a bad ass, third-year guy from Temple. At 6’1″, 275-lbs, he has the bearing of a quarterback pancake machine. McCarley hinted that the defensive end unit may be more of a Blue Ribbon committee comprising Badmus, Tony Carter, TJ Grant and others. But we expect to see Badmus stand out on opening day.
The Offense Will Not Offend
I say that having said that last season, and quite frankly, the offense was not good in 2025, a surprise considering all of the seasoned weapons that had come back. While the Red Wolves seemed capable of moving the ball with fair confidence between the 20s, the team too often sputtered and stalled in the red zone. I asked new offensive coordinator Garrett Altman about last season’s red zone troubles.
“You know, (last year’s offense) was very up-tempo, so we’re not, but we will spurt in spurts of tempo. But I just think the different run schemes could help down there. And ultimately, it’s just turnovers and playing complementary football.”
Your guess is as good as mine as to whether or not Butch Jones put “complementary football” in Altman’s ear. However, Altman has been vocal about improving the run game, which averaged around 120-yards per contest last season. He’s also stated that “the quarterback that takes care of the ball” will be the one that starts. Altman serious about limiting turnovers. But he’s going to need guys to execute his vision.
The Big Guys Running the Offense
Chauncy Cobb, Wide Receiver: Duh. Everybody’s favorite all-purpose yards guy is in his fourth year, seeing his name listed not once, not twice, but thrice on the preseason All Sun Belt First Team Offense. That’s a lot of pressure on the (maybe) 5’6″, 161-lb receiver, but he certainly has the speed. What OC Altman will need from Cobb is scores – in his three years at A-State the Red Wolves fun-sized receiver has found the end zone just once (though he’s known to cross the goal line on kick offs, from time to time.
Kenyon Clay, Running Back: I asked Clay what was more fun: 1) a five yard gain, or 2) delivering a well-executed block. “I love blocking!” said the 6’1″ 231-lb 5th year RB. “Knocking a player on his back and seeing your teammate score is a different feeling.” Muditā! Clay is supposed to be part of a 1-2 punch with Devin Spencer, but the third-year speedster is likely out for the year after a non-contact injury. Even without Spencer, Clay has some good company with Incarnate Word transfer Timothy “Maytag” Carter and UTEP transfer Ezell Jolly, both six-foot runners looking to break some bones.
Tristian Smith, Offensive Line: After a very good 2025 season, Smith briefly dipped into the portal before recommitting himself Butch Jones and the Red Wolves. Smith, a 6’3″ 319-lb 6-year veteran, headlines a seasoned squad of offensive linemen that includes Will Saxon, Aleric Wilson, and center Mason Myers. If Altman is serious about committing to the run, he has the tools with which to do it.
A-State Tight Ends: Led by All-American Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt enjoyed 1,000 yards receiving and seven touchdowns from its tight ends in 2025. Should we expect that kind of TE devotion from former Vandy QB coach Garrett Altman? Tyler Little (6’4″, 245-lbs) and Jabari Bush (6’4″ 230-lbs) return to the rotation, but they only totaled 141 yards and one score in 2025 (worth noting that Little was hurt for much of the season). We may see action from towering Kansas transfer Jaden Hamm (6’6″, 252-lbs) a former ESPN 4-star prospect and a former Razorback commit. “I expect a lot of different faces to see the field at different points of time during a game,” Altman said at Red Wolves Media Day.
Jaylen Bonelli, Wide Receiver: “It took a year for Jaylen to understand what we are doing,” said Butch Jones. “Now he’s completely bought it.” That scans. Last year, the Wagner transfer saw the field often, but he didn’t always seem to be included in the game plan. This year, Bonelli is expected to be more of a go-to guy, with he and Hunter Summers taking some pressure off of Cobb. In 2024, Bonelli led Wagner with 789 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Is this the season he offers the same production for the Red Wolves?
Double Secret Weapon: James Lee, RB
Talk about a guy coming out of nowhere! James Lee, a 5’10” 190-lb running back from Tyler Junior College, didn’t even enroll at Arkansas State until August 11. However, Lee and fellow newcomer RB Tim Carter have quickly stood out. Their contributions will be essential to the team now that Devin Spencer is likely out for the season.
The Known Known: Clune Van Andel, K
The Red Wolves have enjoyed terrific place-kicking for the better part of fifeteen years, and Van Andel ranks among the best, giving Butch Jones a weapon 50-yards and beyond.
Stop Stalling: Who’s Going to be Quarterback
When it comes to projecting the next Arkansas State quarterback, there are plenty of tea leaves but not many firm answers. The Red Wolves have five QBs on the roster: Texas transfer Trey Owens, Vandy transfer Drew Dickey, Vandy transfer Jérémy St. Hilaire, returning back up Ethan Crawford and the latest, Oklahoma State transfer Mason Schubert (of who we don’t know much). Honestly, any one of them have skills to become the man behind center.
Ethan Crawford is the starter if Altman is looking for a guy more like his most famous creation Diego Pavia, a guy who can run and throw. Not only can Crawford run like a small running back, he might have the strongest arm and tightest spiral of the entire crew.
Trey Owens is the starter if Owens performs like the former 4-star, pocket passing recruit that once appealed to the Longhorns. Butch Jones loves QBs who are cool in the pocket, makes sharp passes, and sticks with the game plan.
Drew Dickey is the starter if Altman goes with a guy who knows his playbook better than anyone. Both Jones and Altman value ball-protection above nearly all attributes, and the well-season Dickey may be the guy who delivers the managerial style of QB-ing Jones prefers.
Jérémy St. Hilaire is the starter if the run becomes king in Altman’s offense. This isn’t necessarily a knock on St. Hilaire’s arm – I’m just saying the man is built to punish corners, safeties and maybe even a few linebackers who think that have an easy QB to tackle.
Mason Schubert is the starter if he’s secretly Josh Allen starring in a reality show. I know nothing about Mason Schubert, except that Jones was complimentary of him during Red Wolves Media Days.
Lately, Butch Jones has been quick to mention Dickey’s growth as a QB, but Jones has been known to toss a few red herrings to the media. Trey Owens, at 6’5″ 220, is a big guy who seems just too good to bench. Ethan Crawford had a nice Spring Game, and his spiral is a lot cleaner than I remembered. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hilaire (and/or Crawford) ended up on some goal line situations – at 6’4″ 200-lbs, Hilaire is not likely to be stuffed at the line of scrimmage.
As of this writing, my prediction is that Owens gets first crack at QB when the team opens against Memphis. This is all guesswork on my part.
Must Win OOC Game: Kennesaw State, September 26
Arkansas State traveled to Kennesaw, and the Owls provided a rude welcome of 21 unanswered points in the first quarter. The Red Wolves would score three of the game’s remaining four touchdowns, but the offense never had enough motor to overcome the early deficit.
The road loss wasn’t even the team’s low point – that occurred next week when the Red Wolves fell to ULM for the first time in 15 years. But it did serve as a miserable cherry atop a 1-3 OOC outing in 2025. Normally, I’d identify hated Memphis as the must-win game, but right a wrong set against The Owls would go a long way to numbing the bruises left from last season.
Must Win Conference Game: ULM, November 7
There are plenty of revenge games from which to choose – Louisiana and Southern Miss, for instance. But the 28-16 loss to the Warhawks exposed just how punchless the Red Wolves offense had become, scoring only a pair of field goals in the second half. If Butch Jones wants to distance himself from last year’s low-output offense, he will need new OC Garret Altman to start another 15-game win streak over ULM this November.
Biggest Game of the Year: Troy, November 28
Circle November 28. Then draw an octagon around it! The last game of the season projects to be Arkansas State’s biggest – a road match against the Sun Belt West Champs in Troy, Alabama. Last year, the Red Wolves defense stymied Tucker Kilkrease and the Trojans for a satisfying 23-10 home victory.
In a wild and wide open Sun Belt West, the outcome of this game could very well determine the divisional champion. It’s worthy noting that Arkansas State has a history of dropping into Troy and crushing their hopes and dreams.
Opportunity Zone: Red Wolves Had One 100-Yard Rushing Performance in 2025
Even though the Red Wolves run game saw improvement in 2025, the team saw only one 100-yard rusher last year – Kenyon Clay put up 124 yards on Georgia Southern. Arkansas State desperately needs a bell-ringing hauling the rock.
The Final Analysis
I picked Arkansas State to knock off Troy in the West, partly because I like the A-State offense, and partly because I think the Trojans have lost too much from last year’s good-but-not-great team to repeat. (Last year, I said the same thing about Louisiana, and I was absolutely right.)
The Red Wolves have issues on the defensive line and unknowns at corner back. Last year, DC McCarley adjusted by playing more aggressive along the edge, taking risks to create mayhem behind the line of scrimmage. He’ll likely have to stick with that strategy in 2026 – though hopefully he won’t wait five games into the season to deploy it.
Offensively, the Red Wolves appear to have placed every duck in a row, even though the starting QB has yet to be identified. If the offensive line can stay healthy, and if the wide receivers can provide extra effort in assisting the quarterback, the offense under new OC Garrett Altman should be able to punch more balls across the goal line.
Conference-winning teams play great defense. But maybe divisional-winning teams don’t. That’s what I’m counting on, anyway.
IMAGES BELONG TO me