There was a certain recurring theme for Butch Jones’ press conferences in 2022, one that surfaced more often than “games are won in the trenches” or even “champion’s mentality.”

The game wasn’t lost in the fourth quarter; it was lost on failed play conversions in the previous three.

In other words, if the team had made the plays it was supposed to make in the first, second and third quarters, then the outcome of the fourth quarter would have taken care of itself. Fair enough. Coach Jones was compelled to make this distinction because so many leads (4) heading into the fourth quarter ended up as exasperating losses last season. It’s tempting to lay the blame on the defense, where close-out failures traditionally take place. But in the case of Arkansas State, the offense simply didn’t swing the hammer enough to nail the coffin shut.

Consider this awesome data morsel: The Red Wolves averaged 3.75 fourth quarter points in 2022. Five times, the offense recorded zero fourth quarter points. Week Three’s game against Memphis was the only instance when Arkansas State scored more than once in the 4th Q (15). For the season’s last four games, A-State totaled three (3!) fourth quarter points.

How do you explain that? Again, it’s defense that ultimately surrenders scores (including the 34 fourth quarter points the squad gave up to Troy). But the weight placed upon the defense was consistently greater than the counter-mass offered by the offense. For example, in all four fourth quarter defeats, the opposing team had a time-of-possession advantage. Troy possessed the ball five minutes longer than Arkansas State. For the loss against Texas State, the Bobcats held the ball a whopping nine minutes longer than the Red Wolves.

Visibly, the 2022 Red Wolves defense was a much improved unit over the 2021 version. But it wasn’t getting any help from a three-and-out offense rendered AWOL by the fourth quarter.

Answer: Offensive Line

Remember when we said that the only game when the Red Wolves scored more than once in the fourth quarter occurred in Week 3 at Memphis? Not coincidentally, it was at Memphis when A-State’s best offensive lineman, Robert Holmes, went down with a season-ending injury during the game’s expiring minutes.

The loss of Holmes was both immediate and catastrophic. Against Memphis, the Red Wolves converted 50% (7/14) of third-down attempts. The next week against Old Dominion, the offense converted just 4 of 16 attempts on third-down. Only once after Memphis did Arkansas State post a 50% or better conversion rate on third-down – 9 of 17 in the win over ULM. Alarmingly, the Red Wolves offense would see two games where ZERO third-down attempts were converted. The last five games saw only 8 conversions on third down – one more than converted against Memphis alone.

With no time to pass and without a gap to run through, the Red Wolves relied on whatever heroics the defense could muster. By season’s end, Coach Jones had seen enough. The offensive line became his special project. Already, he had stocked the squad with a good number of freshman talent – young-blood behemoths like Aleric Watson, Elijah Zollicoffer and Chase Jessup all saw action. Youngsters like Mekhi Butler and Noah Smith made big contributions too.

As promising as the recruits looked, Jones still needed more experience, more size. He signed two three-star OLs for the 2023 class (Mason Myers and Walker Davis), brought in an experienced center from Lamar (Jacob Bayer), and delivered three leviathans from Ole Miss (Hamilton Hall, Tobias Baun and Jalen Cunningham). Jones later told Phil Steele that his roster boasts eleven offensive lineman weighing over 300-pounds.

What was once the least experienced and most shallow group on the roster is now meatier and well seasoned. Bayer already looks like an All-Sun Belt center, and the Ole Miss Trio causes the ground to tremble beneath their feet. Coupled with the young men already on the roster, the A-State offense has the proper personnel to wipeout their three-and-out miseries.

All that’s left is to adopt that championship mentality.

PHOTO CREDIT: ME!