If you’re somebody like me (lazy and without sophisticated resources), you assemble your Sun Belt 2023 Preview by standing upon the shoulders of giants – in this case Phil Steele, Lindy’s Sports, 2/47 Sports, Kara Richey and a host of others with true understanding of such complex things. My thanks to all of you.

Platitudes now aside, predicting the Sun Belt in 2023 feels more challenging than it did in 2022, when the tea leaves spoke so clearly. For example, one could see a team like Southern Miss (entering the Sun Belt having endured a terrible season perviously) and immediately place them dead last in the West. One could draw a similar conclusion for James Madison, a program recently elevated to the FBS and rostered with FCS personnel. Furthermore, you could see the talent draining from Coastal Carolina and Louisiana and safely predict mediocre seasons. Conversely, it was merely elementary to prognosticate a disruptor’s season from Georgia State and a redemptive dominating year from South Alabama. If you wanted to roll the dice on Jake Spavital’s portal-or-bust strategy at Texas State, nobody could blame you.

Of course, nearly all of these predictions dispersed harmlessly into the ether like smoke from Curt Cignetti’s invisible cigarette. Not my fault! My predictions were a box-office bomb because the actors tossed the script. For those with a shaky memory, JMU technically won the East, Coastal Carolina also technically won the East, Georgia State tanked, South Alabama fell short, and Southern Miss was surprisingly mediocre. If you thought Texas State was going to win the West with a team comprised chiefly of malcontents, well, that’s your own damn failing.

This season bears few obvious storylines – largely because the preseason storylines from 2022 made fools of us all. How can we trust our instincts when our instincts have been proven so shoddy? Screw it. We’re predicting, no matter how irresponsible. We are the Sun Belt’s Oppenheimer, recklessly splitting atoms without considering the terrible cost.

Who’s Winning the West?

Last year, it was universally accepted that the Sun Belt West was substantially weaker than the East. Howlraiser (accurately) predicted that South Alabama (10-3) and Troy (12-2) would become the two division contenders, and that Louisiana (6-7) would struggle after losing an ocean of talent following the defection of Billy Napier to Florida. However, nobody could foresee Southern Miss (7-6) riding Frank Gore Jr. and a surprisingly tougher-than-expected defense to carry the Golden Eagles to a 4-4 conference record and a bowl win over Rice. It was inconceivable.

Even the “Dead-Weight of the West” – ULM (4-8), Texas State (4-8) and Arkansas State (3-9) – weren’t altogether awful, with the Bobcats upsetting Appalachian State and ULM adding another humiliating layer of loss to Georgia State. In essence, the West proved it had bite in 2022, and with the SBC champion hailing for this unfairly maligned division, the West remains sheriff in this conference.

While we can learn much from the past, is history truly destined to repeat itself?

Why Jaguars Over Trojans?

Grayson McCall gets all the good press in the Sun Belt, but South Alabama’s incoming starting quarterback Carter Bradley is every bit as good as the three-time SBC POY. Last season, Bradley bested McCall in touchdowns and passing yards, and he gets Devin Voisin (871 yards, 5 TDs) and Caulin Lacy (816 yards, 6 TDs) back in 2023.

However, it might be defense that proves to be the deciding factor between these titans. Not only does Troy lose all-time NCAA tackle monster Carlton Martial, Coach Jon Sumrall loses 5 of his top eight tacklers from 2022 while Kane Wommack retains nine defenders from what was already a dominating defensive squad.

West Surprise: Arkansas State

The Red Wolves won’t win a division title in 2023, but they may eek out six wins behind a veteran defense (notably at linebacker) and a significantly deeper offensive line. Though Arkansas State has question marks at QB and possibly depth issues at defense line, look for the Red Wolves to have taken the necessary steps to ending their fourth quarter scoring woes.

West Step Back: Southern Miss

Last year, much of the Golden Eagles’ supernatural good fortune ran dry when rookie HC Will Hall and Southern Miss lost 3 of 4 to close the season. Southern Miss did finish the year strong with a bowl win over Rice, and Frank Gore Jr. returns after a crushing 1,382 yard, 9 TD season, but the exceeding of 2022 expectations make a 2023 reality check a distinct possibility.

Who to Watch from the West

Jibberjabbering

• Arkansas transfer Malik Hornsby, projected starter at QB for Texas State, could very well be the outcome difference for new HC G.J. Kinne. Hornsby can throw, but he can also run, which should give Kinne some versatility as he molds together a new team.
• Arkansas State kicker Dominick Zvada returns after a stellar freshman season. Look for him to be in line for some post-season kicking awards.
• The transfer portal destroyed ULM this off season, with about 20 guys moving on from Monroe. However, HC Terry Bowden did lasso former 5-star defensive end Donell Harris from Texas A&M.

Does the East Even Have a Least?

Obviously, I’m just rhyming here – Old Dominion is the least in these Eastern parts. But even with a struggling Monarchs team, the Sun Belt East is even-handed from top to bottom. Is The East clearly better than The West this season? Nope. Look at all the talent that departed: Chase Brice (Appalachian State), Ali Jennings (Old Dominion), Todd Centeio (JMU), Nick Hampton (Appalachian State), Willie Lampkin (Coastal Carolina), Kyle Vantrease (Georgia Southern), Khalan Laborn (Marshall) and more are gone. How do you replace all that talent?

Truth is, just about anyone playing the Sun Belt East could win the Sun Belt East. Any fan of a team who Howlraiser hasn’t picked to finish first has a good beef. So how do you pick them?

One of my laziest methods has been to see who’s returning at QB, the most important position on the gridiron. Only three programs from the East return Sun Belt experience at QB: Marshall (Cam Fancher), Georgia State (Darren Grainger) and Coastal Carolina (Grayson McCall). Fancher had his issues in 2022, but McCall and Grainger are proven signal callers. But do I feel great about any of these teams? Nope!

Speaking of QB, Georgia Southern head coach Clay Helton completely reimagined the Eagles behind Buffalo transfer slinger Kyle Vantrease. Can he duplicate the magic with Tulsa transfer Davis Brin? In the meantime, who is Appalachian State putting behind center? Redshirt freshman Ryan Burger? James Madison scored big behind transfer Todd Centeio. Do Alonza Barnett or Jordan McCloud have the same mojo? We may as well determine the victor by rolling a seven-sided dice.

Why So Glum on The Eastern Champs?

Howlraiser isn’t wild about the legitimate SBC East Champs (James Madison) or the actual SBC East Champs (Coastal Carolina). Yes, McCall returns after flirting with Auburn, and Sam Pinckney is still one of the best wideouts in the Sun Belt. However, Jamey Chadwell making a lateral move to Liberty in CUSA gives me the hives. The Chanticleers won an awful lot of games by the skin of their beaks in 2023, and its abysmal manner by which Coastal closed 2022 (blowout losses to JMU, Troy and East Carolina) has me thinking that Chadwell had a sneak peak to the writing on the wall.

A few miles north, James Madison could very well parlay an incredible 2022 season with a championship 2023 outing. However, so much of the Dukes success was centered on Centeio’s ability as a playmaker. Now he’s gone, along with All Sun Belt First Team defensive lineman Isaac Ukwu (transfer). Replacing Centeio might be Jordan McCloud, a dual-threat transfer from Arizona. Risking the ire of HC Curt Cignetti, we’re predicting a sophomore slump from the Dukes.

If Eagles Rise, No Surprise

Sure, it’s courageous stuff to predict a fourth place finish for Georgia Southern and then say “But they COULD finish FIRST!” All I’m saying is that I’m in awe of what Clay Helton did in Statesboro last season, and I have no reason to believe he can’t do it again. Davis Brin may not be Kyle Vantrease, but perhaps he doesn’t have to be with Jalen White (RB) and Khaleb Hood (WR) inflicting all the offensive damage.

Can Georgia State Finally Not Disappoint?

HC Shawn Elliot is one of the Sun Belt’s most liable coaches, and Grainger is 100% a playmaker behind center. But last year’s defense (84th) refused to show for too many games, especially at the beginning and end of the season. Slow starts have become a Panthers’ tradition, and if Elliot can’t find a way to produce a full measure of production from his talent in 2023, he may find his seat the hottest in the Belt.

Who Will Feast in the East?

Mishmash

• Coastal Carolina was the recipient of one of the more intriguing transfers, Cane Berrong from Notre Dame. The former ESPN 4-star recruit has a chance to become the next Isaiah Likely in McCall’s offense.
• Why is everybody so low on the Monarchs? Losing their top WR (Ali Jennings), tight end (Zack Knutz) and starting QB (Hayden Wolfe) has a way of stomping the air out of your balloon. Let’s see what the crafty Ricky Rahne has up his sleeve before dismissing Old Dominion outright.
• When you think offensive lines, you may think James Madison, Appalachian State and Louisiana. But the Panthers got the heavies, too, and Travis Glover (OT) may be the best offensive lineman in the conference.

PHOTO CREDIT: Mine