Recently, I opened a can of debate by responding to this tweet:
Some have dated this image as a game between Arkansas State and Memphis in 2011. That feels right. The Red Wolves had moved on from longtime head coach Steve Roberts to popular OC Hugh Freeze, whose offensive schemes totally reshaped the program. There was a new energy in Jonesboro that felt hopeful. For the first time in recent history, Arkansas State fans felt they had a place at the college football table.
Most people stamped a heart on the tweet and moved on. However, some defended modern college football, pointing out the proposed 24-team playoffs would afford more opportunities for Group of Six programs. My view of this opinion was dim:
This tact spurred more discussion, most of it not very productive. But I did begin to consider the original position more seriously. Did Arkansas State really have more opportunity to obtain a national championship in 2011 than today (or in the near future)?
In 2011, the NCAA’s top level of college football was still operating under the BCS (Bowl Championship Series) system. The national champion was determined by a single BCS National Championship Game between the teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS standings. The overall opinion of the BCS system – real or imagined – was that the algorithm that determined the standings was flawed. Smaller conferences felt like the computers were too heavily biased for larger conferences and preseason reputations. Larger conferences had their issues, too, and were the loudest to advocate for a playoff system.
Under this system, the Group of Five did not fare especially well. The closest the G5 got to a championship game was 2009, when TCU was ranked 4th and Boise State was ranked sixth out of the Mountain West. But some viewed this as a positive (and a threat). The G5 was closing the gap. How?
In 2009, there was no NIL or unlimited transfer. You could build a roster with energetic recruiting and the prospect of playing time. You could “coach-up” two and three star players – starting with their freshman year and concluding after a four-year stint with the university. Programs like Boise State, TCU, Cincinnati and UCF were gaining national recognition, answering the question “can top talent be recognized and rewarded at the G5 level?” The answer was yes.
Young head coaches began to see the value of joining the G5 rather than toiling as assistants in the privileged conferences. The list of successful “power” coaches who cut their teeth in the G5 between 2009 and 2014 is impressive and includes Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, PJ Fleck, Matt Campbell, Sonny Dykes, Jeff Brohm, Matt Rhule, Kyle Whittingham and Dave Doeren. If you were a young-and-hungry coach, you could build a competitive program in a G5 conference.
The Group of Five was having their moment – and not everybody was pleased. ESPN talking heads like Kirk Herbstreit and Greg McElroy often talking down on the G5. (It should be noted that ESPN became the SEC’s primary broadcast partner in 2009.) Power fanbases adopted the sentiments, endlessly groaning about “strength of schedule.” That the BCS was ranking G5 programs so highly was evidence of its flaws. It had to go.
And the NCAA College Football Playoffs were born.
What Can We Expect After 2026?
Since the inception of The Playoffs, realignment has created comically goofy footprints, the PAC12 was eaten by its own, NIL is paying backup quarterbacks millions of dollars, disgruntled players can move to a new program every year, and there are now just two power conferences – the SEC and BIG10.
Everybody but Tony Petitti and Greg Sankey are panicking. The federal government is being solicited to put a lasso on NIL and transfer, but nothing meaningful will be enacted as long as Petitti and Sankey (and Fox Sports and ESPN) are calling the shots. The money bag is too large to move, but the push to make it even bigger moves forward.
The latest idea is a 24-team playoff that sounds good on paper. In a fair and just world where college football is actually played for the pleasure of students and fans, we would see a playoff system that rewards the champions of all eight FBS conferences and then whatever at-larges deemed worthy by in impartial governance.
That’s not what is being proposed.
To date, the format is: 19 at-large teams. 4 automatic bids for the champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, 1 automatic bid for the highest-ranked team from the six other FBS conferences: American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt
The math is grim. The Group of Six, comprised of 69 teams, is granted one slot. Because NIL and unlimited transfer has sapped the G6 of its skill, the chances that a G6 program would ever approach the standards of the “19 at large” selections is cartoonishly low. This year, the G6 has collected just three wins over Power conferences. With October coming to a close, only one G6 team has tasted the AP Top 25 this year: Boise State, the team the vast majority of voters traditionally select as the G6 representative. Boise State’s best win is over Memphis.
The college football system, which was left the door open for Group of Five success, is now obviously weighted to reward a handful of programs with wealthy donors and highly visible brands. Nobody is happier than ESPN and BIG10, who are happy to focus its resources on the handful of teams knocking themselves in and out of an AP Top Ten completely compromised by the Power Two. What was once a diverse and robust college football landscape has become a boring, season long thought-piece about Arch Manning and Texas.
Arkansas State had a mathematical chance to win a national title in 2011. It was enough to capture our imagination. In 2027, that chance is 0.0%. Congrats to everyone who made it possible. We just created another NFL.
PHOTO is MINE. A selfie from the Spring of 2012, showing off a new attitude for Arkansas State.